I thought Cameron would never, ever get AV or any other voting system past his MPs. They, along with Labour, would lose seats.

However, the devil is always in the detail. I think the referendum will take place but budget cuts will cripple any civil service explanatory campaign, an underfunded Electoral Commission will lead to mistakes and create a bad atmosphere, and controlled timing combined with coalition difficulties will allow co-ordination with the Murdoch papers to run anti-PR propaganda at full speed.