We will hit peak oil production at some point, and short of a major game changing event we are near the peak. But the exact moment will only be calculated by historians much later. Real figures for oil reserves, oil production, oil demand, technology and everything else in the oil business are so obscure that nobody can give a firm figure. Too many people and countries have a reason to lie, either to increase or decrease how much oil they have on hand, how much they produce, how much they sell and how much they need.

Jay