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New Obama says he is going to get tough on China currency
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35226286
President Barack Obama vowed to "get much tougher" with China on trade and currency rules to ensure U.S. goods do not face a competitive disadvantage, adding to a range of issues weighing on relations.

Of course, US administrations have been complaining about this for years without actually doing anything. But Obama may actually mean something here, his administration has taken a sharper line with China then previous ones and in the US the situation has changed. Fixing our economic problems requires that the Yuan rise. Our trade, industry and finance problems are all tied to the Yuan/Dollar rate to some degree. An actual float may not be needed, but the exchange rate has to get closer to it's natural rate.

The real problem is that the US doesn't have a lot of leverage here. Leaning on China on trade and political issues is best we have, and until we are skirting a trade war it isn't likely to change China's behavior. Expect this to get worse before it gets better.

Jay
New better pray the chinese dont get tough on our currency
and start dumping dollars, thats a war we cannot win but negotiate out of weakness
If we torture the data long enough, it will confess. (Ronald Coase, Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences, 1991)
New Not quite.
The Yuan has to go up for Obama to reach the goal of doubling US exports. It is hurting the US economy and the world economy as a whole.

1) Japan is buying more Treasuries, and they hold more than China - http://www.newsnecon...of-us-assets.html

2) We do have at least one option if China refuses to cooperate. Dean Baker - http://www.prospect....na_find_it_surpri

The NYT tells readers that: "China’s leaders have grown impatient with lectures on economic policy from their chief debtor, the United States." The reason that the United States is China largest debtor is that China is buying up massive amounts of U.S. government debt and other dollar denominated assets to maintain the high value of the dollar against the yuan. By pushing up the value of the dollar against the yuan, China makes U.S. produced goods less competitive both within the United States and internationally. This is a major cause of the U.S. trade deficit. In addition, because it increases the trade deficit and lowers GDP, China's currency policy also raises the U.S. budget deficit.

Who would have more reason to give China "lectures" on its currency policy than the country that suffers most from this policy. The NYT implies that there is something peculiar about the Obama's administration's complaints given that it is a large debtor of China. Of course the whole point is that the Obama administration is complaining because China's policies have made it a large debtor.

It is worth noting that the United States does not have to beg China to change its currency policy as the article implies. It can unilaterally set an exchange rate that has a lower value for the dollar against the yuan. This would be an extraordinary measure, however if China refused to raise the value of the yuan, the U.S. government could announce its willingness to trade yuan at a higher value (e.g. 5 yuan to a dollar) than China's official exchange rate.


3) China's mercantilism is hurting other economies as well. It can't persist too much longer. Krugman - http://krugman.blogs...ese-mercantilism/

Fixing the Yuan exchange rate is going to take time, but it is going to happen - one way or another. China doesn't hold all the cards, even versus the US.

Cheers,
Scot.t
New China can't do that
China can't just dump our debt, because their own trade depends on suppressing the Yuan/Dollar exchange rate. If China just dumps our debt they would loose a fortune selling it at a loss and the exchange rate would climb, exactly what we want. They can try mandating an exchange rate by government fiat, but to do that they have to have the dollars to make exchanges themselves. That would require constantly buying dollars at a higher price then they are exchanging locally, essentially reversing the current trade imbalance and not sustainable forever.

The US doesn't have any good leverage over China, but our economies are so intertwined at this point that a trade war would be bad for both. The US is reaching the point though that a trade war might be less bad then continuing the current economic imbalance.

Jay
     Obama says he is going to get tough on China currency - (jay) - (3)
         better pray the chinese dont get tough on our currency - (boxley) - (2)
             Not quite. - (Another Scott)
             China can't do that - (jay)

For what it's worth, gangrene makes one testy.
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