Microsoft's strategy was to flood the world with non-standard "Windows only" Java JVMs to "polute" (their word) Java for multi-platform use.

Having lost in court, Microsoft can issue no new JVMs, but is permitted to continue distribution of their old one for a limited time. Their strategy now is to prompt Windows users to download this ancient JVM from Microsoft rather than an up-to-date one from elswhere to promote incompatibility and halt the progress of Java use at the point of their last JVM (since most Windows users won't have anything newer).

Since this is a limited time strategy, the ongoing strategy will to break JVM compatibility early and often by sending "updated" .DLLs to software developers for inclusion in their software (this breaks tracability to Microsoft). Remember, those huge "catch all" .DLLs have all kinds of stuff co-mingled in them. Sun would have to respond with fixes that not only reestablish compatibility with the new .DLLs, but don't break compatibility with all the people still running the old .DLLs.

Given this situation, it is clear that Sun cannot assure compatibility of Java with Windows without (forced) cooperation from Microsoft.