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New go to vegas, your chances are better than the market
when the p&e settles around 10 (roughly 6500) it will settle out. I do remember a story about a guy that bought RCA in 1929 and held it until it regained to what he purchased it for. 1969 or thereabouts.
New Good point
Making money by timing the market, like all gambling, is a zero sum game. Anything you win is coming straight from someone else's loss. Whenever it seems like the whole market is up, that's just paper earnings. You can't cash out without someone else buying in, so there's no way for the entire market to be winning at the same time. Just can't happen. (And let's not bring up the vig ... excuse me, the fees.)

When GM sells a car -- let's pretend we're talking about a time when that was happening profitably -- GM gets the money from the sale, the buyer gets a car, the workers get paychecks, the stockholder get a share of the profits. Everyone wins.

When your business model is timing stock fluctuations, you can win or lose regardless of how many cars GM sells. Workers are laid off, potential customers don't have new cars, there's no dividend, but hey, you shorted the stock, so you still made money. Someone else lost, though. It's less than zero sum.
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Drew
     Wow... bold... Dow 4000 - (folkert) - (9)
         Where are the people talking about wealth creation? - (drook) - (8)
             That's 20th Century thinking. Get with the program! - (Another Scott) - (7)
                 I've got it! Lottery tickets! - (mhuber) - (1)
                     That makes a lot of sense. - (Another Scott)
                 Let's talk real economy - (drook) - (4)
                     Understood. - (Another Scott) - (3)
                         I got the sarcasm - (drook) - (2)
                             go to vegas, your chances are better than the market - (boxley) - (1)
                                 Good point - (drook)

Do you know what the chain of command is? It's the chain I'll BEAT YOU WITH until you realize who's in command.
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