Re: 2%: FÃ¼ck The Big Three

Post #301,217 by malraux 12/18/08 9:27:06 AM Reply	Re: 2%: FÃ¼ck The Big Three If the big 3 go down, the suppliers will probably fall too. In which case the foreign car makers will have a hard time of it as well. I wish this were as simple as he seems to think it is. And of course, I'm biased, because it's my state that will be turned into a dustblown wasteland if the car makers go away. Regards, -scott Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
Post #301,218 by Another Scott 12/18/08 9:42:07 AM Reply	Not only that, but if the big 3 go... there will be lots of expenses that they're paying now that the US will be responsible for. http://www.lubbockon...s_366159267.shtml The Center for Automotive Research estimates that if Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC completely stopped making cars next year but returned to 50 percent production levels in 2010 and 2011, it would still wipe out nearly 2.5 million jobs next year. The center, which gets a small portion of its budget from auto companies, says 239,000 of those jobs would come from the Big Three, 795,000 from their suppliers, and 1.4 million from other jobs created by the spending of auto workers and suppliers' employees. The number of lost jobs would decline to 1 million by 2011 as the Detroit companies resume work, foreign automakers in the U.S. expand their production, and some laid-off workers find other jobs. Overall, that lost employment would cost government at all levels $50 billion next year and $108 billion over the next three years, the center estimates, with Washington bearing most of that cost. Almost a quarter of the money would be for unemployment, welfare, health care and other costs government would have to carry, while the rest would come from lost collections of income taxes and payroll taxes that support Social Security. In a more severe scenario in which the Big Three halted all U.S. operations completely, the three-year cost to taxpayers would be $156 billion in lost tax revenue and higher spending, the center says. "Without question" it would cost the government less to give the Big Three a loan than to watch them curtail production, said Sean McAlinden, the research center's vice president for research. "That's better than taking this huge tax and transfer payment hit." There are disagreements about the estimates, of course, but clearly there would be substantial costs in letting/forcing them into bankruptcy or liquidation. Cheers, Scott.
Post #301,250 by crazy 12/18/08 7:36:26 PM Reply	Too lazy to read the article But I gotta tell you, any study done by: "The Center for Automotive Research" http://www.cargroup.org/ has to be looked at very closely. Checkout their funding sources. Looks like standard industry front site for me. Their #1 source of income is conferences. They get paid to party.
Post #301,253 by Another Scott 12/18/08 8:06:25 PM Reply	CAR's a pretty good group. David Cole heads it and he seems to know what he's talking about. Of course, they do think that the US auto industry is important, but they present pretty compelling reasons why that's the case. The study cited in the Lubbock article is only 7 pages. It's here: http://www.cargroup....Impact_3__002.pdf "They get paid to party." Heh. I doubt that much partying goes on at CAR conferences. :-) Cheers, Scott.

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