for fedreral seats.because you can usually only poll white folks in cities reliably which holds the highest population of democrats. Add to that the fact that bush alaska is overwhelmingly democrat EXCEPT for the federal seats where they hold stevens and young in reverence.
I notice that the source of the article doesnt mention or appear to know about polls in the bush where few households have telephones and a deep suspicion of strangers asking questions

Absentee ballots usually break the same way as the votes but in this case may be higher for stevens because the National Guard is overseas, they are largly native troops from traditional areas.

Questioned ballots are usually in the population centers because of showing up at the wrong polling place.

Every federal election the ADN trumpets polls that show democrats finally taking the seats from ted and don, then they scratch their heads after the votes come in.

The polls dont take into effect that alaskans are very polarized towards the trial blaming a political washington witch hunt. Most insisted that the trial should have been held in alaska.

As far as Begich himself, I have had a lot of conversations with him over the years and he would make an excellent senator after Ted dies or is retired. Although democratic he is hugely pragmatic. As an example while assemblyman he would actually look at every line item in the municipal budget and understand what he was looking at.

http://www.sitnews.us/0208news/021008/021008_ak_population.html
doesnt give the whole picture. Alaska has a lot of new people coming in and out. Not as much as the 80's where a person only lived there for 5 years or less. A migrant population usually isnt interested in local politics so doesnt get registered to vote. Since Alaska is usually ignored and the polls are still open when the Presidential winner is declared a lot of folks dont bother. The older folks and the natives have a vote of over 80% of the times. The city folks range from 20% in off years to the most I have ever heard of of 43% turnout in a slobberknocker mayoral election in anchorage

as you see in the doc a large portion of the municipal population of anchorage and fairbanks is military. They may or may not choose to vote lacally, the could be more interested in voting absentee in their home races.

remeber, they will count the anchorage absentee votes first, then the outliers and that favors begich, Still gonna be close.
thanx,
bill