Some of this is semantics.

Nobody knows what the future holds, of course. And he makes a good point, similar to my comments earlier, that the country is fundamentally resistant to change (what some would call "conservative") unless forced by the real world to confront problems, but I think the odds are better than 50:50 that a political realignment is in the offing for the next couple of elections.

Polman doesn't comment on the importance of redistricting - I think that may have a major effect on the composition of Congress in 2012 and later. (Recall that the Republicans' increases in Congress in the early 2000s was at least partly the result of the 2003 redistricting in Texas.)

Even if Obama governs from what Polman regards as the center, it would be a dramatic change from Bush's approach. ;-)

Time will tell, though.

Cheers,
Scott.