[link|http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/09/30/christan-conservatives-consider-third-party-effort/index.html?hp|NY Times]

Alarmed at the chance that the Republican party might pick Rudolph Giuliani as its presidential nominee despite his support for abortion rights, a coalition of influential Christian conservatives is threatening to back a third-party candidate in an attempt to stop him.

The group making the threat, which came together Saturday in Salt Lake City during a break-away gathering during a meeting of the secretive Council for National Policy, includes Dr. James Dobson of Focus on the Family, who is perhaps the most influential of the group, as well as Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council, the direct mail pioneer Richard Viguerie and dozens of other politically-oriented conservative Christians, participants said. Almost everyone present expressed support for a written resolution that \ufffdif the Republican Party nominates a pro-abortion candidate we will consider running a third party candidate.\ufffd

It is looking like Giuliani may get the Republican party nomination by default, no other candidate can get any traction at all. That this is causing some conservatives to consider leaving the party is no surprise.

But the CNP is not some little fringe group, it is the biggest and most important organizing group for religious conservatives in the US. Most people have never heard of it because it is very secretive. But this is the group that anointed Reagan and Bush Jr into the White House. Their switching candidates would split the party.

Personally, I think this would be a good thing in the long run. But it is sure to cost the party one or two elections in the process.

Jay

[edit|typo fix]

It is still too early to go that far. She has, largely by default also, taken the front runners position. But it isn't that uncommon for the front runner anointed by the press before the actual process starts to get unseated. If she is still clearly in front after the 3rd or 4th state vote her position will be a lot stronger.

One thing Clinton and her staff understand well is the importance of acting like she has already won the nomination. By constantly implying that she is the run away leader for the nomination she gets the press to focus on her, which makes her the run away leader.

If we still had a functional mass media in the US, they would intentionally avoid that bias and give at least as much time to the minor candidates. Heck, this early in the campaign you can make the case that they should favor the minor candidates. But the US press can not be bothered to cover more then two candidates per party. That is what is destroying Edwards right now. He can't get enough news coverage because Hillary and Obama are the press selected front runners.

Jay