Just a thought

Post #291,035 by imqwerky 8/17/07 11:45:47 AM Reply	Just a thought I was looking over the computer models for Hurricane Dean and wondered if they combined the 5 models and averaged them what the path might look like. I'm sure I'm not the first person to suggest that. Smile, Amy
Post #291,036 by Another Scott 8/17/07 11:56:24 AM Reply	Here ya go. [link\|http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html\|Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts for Dean] at Weather Underground. The trouble with taking averages is that some of the paths may be much more likely than others based on previous storms. Apparently a lot will depend on how things are when/if it enters the Gulf of Mexico. There's a neat little animated model [link\|http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad\|here]. Cheers, Scott.
Post #291,037 by imqwerky 8/17/07 12:06:37 PM Reply	Those are the ones I was looking at...it occurred to me that blending/averaging the data from those 5 models might give a more accurate picture. But I suppose there are so many variables that even the slightest variation can change the course of the storm. Smile, Amy
Post #291,063 by Another Scott 8/17/07 9:15:11 PM Reply	You'll like this article. [link\|http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=753&tstamp=200708\|Wunderblog]: We're fairly confident of the 1-2 day forecast, which has Dean headed west to west-northwest over the Central Caribbean, very close to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, then into the Western Caribbean. After that, things become murkier. The latest 12Z runs of the NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS, and HWRF computer models all show Dean hitting the Yucatan Peninsula, and continuing on into the Gulf of Mexico towards a second landfall near or south of the Texas border. The HWRF run is slower, and does not take Dean to the coast at the end of its forecast period. The big outlier is the GFDL model, which now takes Dean northwest into central Louisiana. Which model is correct? The problem is that each model has a different solution for the behavior of an upper-level low pressure system expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Which model should we trust? [...] Cheers, Scott.
Post #291,069 by imqwerky 8/18/07 12:31:45 AM Reply	Scott, You totally rock That's what I was looking for. Thanks! Smile, Amy
Post #291,070 by bepatient 8/18/07 1:34:17 AM Reply	Be happy not to be in Jamaica It isn't looking pretty. Likely (near definite) to hit Cat5 with sustained 150+ winds right before a head on pass. Too much of today's music is fashionable crap dressed as artistry._{Adrian Belew}

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