Palestinian government collapses

Post #287,010

6/14/07 3:08:47 PM

[link|http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/06/14/gaza/index.html|CNN]

President Mahmoud Abbas dismissed the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority government and declared a state of emergency Thursday after four days of fighting that has left Hamas in control of much of Gaza, an aide to the Palestinian leader said.

The move comes after Hamas announced Thursday that Gaza is now under its Islamic rule, the first step to becoming an Islamic state.

Under the state of emergency, Abbas will have the authority replace the current Hamas Cabinet with his Fatah allies. The temporary Cabinet would have to be approved by the Palestinian Legislative Council after 30 days.

Currently, there is no government control in Gaza, according to Palestinian legislator Saeb Erakat.

This is very bad, with signs of being a serious disaster.

I see a great risk that Hamas may secure the Gaza Strip while Fatah and the rest of the PA holds onto the West Bank. Without a unified front, the Palestinians would be almost unable to negotiate with Israel, while Israel would be left facing two Palestinian powers with different agendas.

Jay

Post #287,011

by boxley

6/14/07 3:16:56 PM

maybe not

at this point Israel should pull down any barriers between gaza and Egypt and build a defence in depth wall at the current demarque while ceding air and water access to gazans. No trade traffic or services, let the arabs handle them. Any rockets come over, a legitimate reason to punt artillary shells into the inhabited areas. If the gazans are smart and unified they could build a real jewel on the med. If not they can move closer to suez.
thanx,
bill

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Post #287,031

by static

6/14/07 10:25:44 PM

A few problems with that.

Mostly, the Palestinians with the weapons won't settle for a little piece of Palestine: they want to ~~kick out~~ kill all the Jews first.

Wade.

Is it enough to love
Is it enough to breathe
Somebody rip my heart out
And leave me here to bleed

Is it enough to die
Somebody save my life
I'd rather be Anything but Ordinary
Please

-- "Anything but Ordinary" by Avril Lavigne.

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Post #287,046

by JayMehaffey

6/15/07 8:25:18 AM

Wouldn't work

If it where Fatah that might have a chance of working, but not Hamas. Egypt is working hard to suppress it's own Muslim political parties. It is not going to work with a even more radical one. What would happen is that Egypt would roll over and occupy the strip itself.

It would be interesting to see how the Palestinians react to oppressed by an anti-Muslim Arab power though.

Jay

Post #287,069

by boxley

6/15/07 5:02:44 PM

ed zachary

When the egyptians level the place flat the world wont give a rats ass.
thanx,
bill

Post #287,070

by Another Scott

6/15/07 5:22:48 PM

I dunno.

According to [link|http://www.pbs.org/weta/crossroads/about/show_jihad.html|Jihad], bin Laden and cohorts (in their own words) have wanted to start a regional war from China to Egypt and beyond in preparation for restoration of the Caliphate. It's hard not to view the events in Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, etc., etc., as fitting into this plan. I don't know a lot about the ideology behind Hamas, but they certainly seem much closer to the Muslim Brotherhood and similar groups than to secular nationalist groups.

It's very hard for me to imagine Egypt considering rolling into Gaza without thinking about the consequences for feeding further internal unrest. Since Egypt has been part of the "near enemy" since Nasser's days, I'm sure Osama and Ayman would like nothing better than another pretext to incite attacks against Egypt. Seeing that, I don't think Egypt's government would have any interest in going into Gaza.

I suspect that most outsiders will keep a hands-off approach to Gaza until they feel they have no other choice. At that point, all bets are off. :-( I expect that Gaza will be fairly quiet soon (Hamas will want to consolidate their gains; Fatah will be too weak to respond), but the masses of people there will continue to suffer (partly because the West will have even more reason to refuse to support them). I expect the West Bank will be fairly quiet too, and Fatah will feel great pressure to prove to the population that it can govern (while cracking down on Hamas there).

Just my $0.02.

Cheers,
Scott.

Post #287,073

by boxley

6/15/07 6:15:27 PM

have you seen any restive outcry over hamas killing fatah?

When it comes to Arab on Arab killing Iraq has pretty much dimmed interest. If egypt stepped in no one would care much and gaza has been an infested sore on their flanks as well. The sinai bombings were masterminded in gaza.
thanx,
bill

Post #287,078

by Another Scott

6/15/07 8:26:16 PM

It only takes a few thousand to make a difference.

Remember flatboy2016's [link|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=116266|.sig].

Al Qaeda's audience isn't the masses: it's the unemployed, disaffected, idealistic young man who wants to throw his heart (and life) into a cause bigger than himself. [link|http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayyid_Qutb|Sayyid Qutb]'s ideas already have resonance with such people. If Egypt invaded Gaza to crush Hamas, you can bet that Osama and his acolytes would point to Egypt and say:

You see! This is proof that the Egyptians are [link|http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jahiliyyah|Jahiliyyah] and they are attacking the true Muslim's! [link|http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Takfir|Takfir!]. We must protect the [link|http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ummah|Ummah]! It's your duty as a Muslim to go to Gaza or Egypt to fight them!

I'm sure that more than a few would be susceptible to such exhortations.

If Egypt cracks down, they're damned by the press, in global public opinion, and feed the islamist arguments. If they don't crack down, they look weak and make it easier for those who intend to overthrow them by force.

In short, I don't think Egypt would move into Gaza unless they felt they had no other choice. If it gets that bad, all bets are off.

have you seen any restive outcry over hamas killing fatah?

Yes, in the reports I've heard on NPR. Remember the [link|http://english.people.com.cn/200706/13/eng20070613_383893.html|demonstration] a day or so ago of Palestinians demanding that the fighting stop? In other stories, many of the Hamas members/supporters were saying that the Fatah people were [link|http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kafir|Kafir] - they weren't "true" Muslims. It's straight out of Qutb - I don't think most Gazans look forward to an islamist government and living under Sharia.

An unfettered Hamas government in Gaza could could cause lots of mischief in Egypt and other neighboring states.

Cheers,
Scott.

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