If/when the "surge" in Iraq doesn't work, look for more Republicans to see the writing on the wall. Things changed quite a bit in the party after Nixon's troubles (e.g. the rise of Reagan). If the right person comes around, the "conservatives" can be forced from power in the party. It'll take time, though.

I don't see anyone in the running right now that (realistically) can make a clean break with Bush. Maybe Gilmore, but he's (trying) very much to be in the Reagan mode and I don't think many people will buy into it if the Democrats offer a reasonable alternative.

I do think that 2008 is a lost cause for them. But 2010 and later can see them gain back some of their losses if they make a break with Bush's legacy and the Democrats don't get too far in front of the country. But even with a break, I think it's most likely that the Republicans will be a minority party for 10 or more years.

FWIW.

Cheers,
Scott.