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New The housing crash? What crash? Where?
[link|http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html|This one right here!]

Wow, this guy really lays it on the line.
--
[link|mailto:greg@gregfolkert.net|greg],
[link|http://www.iwethey.org/ed_curry|REMEMBER ED CURRY!] @ iwethey
Freedom is not FREE.
Yeah, but 10s of Trillions of US Dollars?
SELECT * FROM scog WHERE ethics > 0;

0 rows returned.
New He makes some good points, but he's a *little* pessimistic.
New No, *Kunstler* is pessimistic
With a blog name like [link|http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/.com|this], you gotta figure he'll make nearly anyone sound like Little Mary Sunshine. And he does.
===

Kip Hawley is still an idiot.

===

Purveyor of Doc Hope's [link|http://DocHope.com|fresh-baked dog biscuits and pet treats].
[link|http://DocHope.com|http://DocHope.com]
New Or, a better link...
[link|http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/|Link].
Alex

When fascism comes to America, it'll be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross. -- Sinclair Lewis
New Don't know what market he's in
but renting versus owning here is not as far apart as he says.

If he's in CA maybe...but where I'm at I don't expect prices to rise to drastically...but I don't expect them to fall drastically either.
Too much of today's music is fashionable crap dressed as artistry.Adrian Belew
New Yeah, but nobody...
really *wants* to live in New Jersey... you know.
--
[link|mailto:greg@gregfolkert.net|greg],
[link|http://www.iwethey.org/ed_curry|REMEMBER ED CURRY!] @ iwethey
Freedom is not FREE.
Yeah, but 10s of Trillions of US Dollars?
SELECT * FROM scog WHERE ethics > 0;

0 rows returned.
New There's some beautiful countryside around Princeton.
Or there was about 20 years ago - I haven't been through there since the late 1980s.

Cheers,
Scott.
New Yeah, but the...
lack of over head lighting, but still able to see like it is there, tends to bother me.
--
[link|mailto:greg@gregfolkert.net|greg],
[link|http://www.iwethey.org/ed_curry|REMEMBER ED CURRY!] @ iwethey
Freedom is not FREE.
Yeah, but 10s of Trillions of US Dollars?
SELECT * FROM scog WHERE ethics > 0;

0 rows returned.
New :-) Metropolitan areas are like that.
I still remember driving to Chicago at night and seeing a huge glow over the horizon. It never got dark there.

Cheers,
Scott.
New I guess you are not...
understanding.

The old saying:
Why did New York get all the Lawyer? Because New Jersey chose the chemical dumps.
--
[link|mailto:greg@gregfolkert.net|greg],
[link|http://www.iwethey.org/ed_curry|REMEMBER ED CURRY!] @ iwethey
Freedom is not FREE.
Yeah, but 10s of Trillions of US Dollars?
SELECT * FROM scog WHERE ethics > 0;

0 rows returned.
New I just took a tangent. :-)
I don't think there are many chemical or radioactive dumps around Princeton, but I could be wrong.

:-)

Cheers,
Scott.
New What do ya mean... Princeton
*IS* a huge waste dump... just look at the Dorms on a Saturday evening.

Oh, wait, pretty much ANY College/University with on campus Dorms...
--
[link|mailto:greg@gregfolkert.net|greg],
[link|http://www.iwethey.org/ed_curry|REMEMBER ED CURRY!] @ iwethey
Freedom is not FREE.
Yeah, but 10s of Trillions of US Dollars?
SELECT * FROM scog WHERE ethics > 0;

0 rows returned.
New Patrick.net is in SF Bay Area
where renting is roughly half the cost of buying, so he's definitely not pessimtic given the conditions here.

And a good case can be made that housing market will get really, really ugly - just to name a couple, look at the numbers of "exotic" mortgages such as I/O (e.g. 2/28's) and Option-ARM (even in places like Atlanta), and at the current rapid implosion of sub-prime lenders, which will remove a significant amount of potential buyers throughout the US.

--Tony
New Re: Patrick.net is in SF Bay Area
That market is too far removed from reality. I agree with his prognosis there. It will implode. It needs to.

It is NOT a typical market.
Too much of today's music is fashionable crap dressed as artistry.Adrian Belew
New CA might be the center, but the problems will spread
Just to give two examples, Orange County is subprime central, but as the subprimes go out of business, it not only hurts OC (e.g. loss of jobs), but the rest of the country, because it removes a significant pool of buyers. Less buyers = less demand = lower prices for a given supply

Second, non-traditional mortgages are widespread outside of CA; for example, [link|http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/01/magazines/fortune/nar.fortune/|here David Lereah] claims that Atlanta had 40% I/O loans in 2005. Unless those Atlanta homeowners can handle a significant increase in mortgage payments, Atlanta will be hurting too.

--Tony
New Cool. Maybe I can buy a forclosure.
I'll cough up $1000 bucks. I have no credit.

I think I'll still have a wait longer than my lifespan though.

Imric's Tips for Living
  • Paranoia Is a Survival Trait
  • Pessimists are never disappointed - but sometimes, if they are very lucky, they can be pleasantly surprised...
  • Even though everyone is out to get you, it doesn't matter unless you let them win.


Nothing is as simple as it seems in the beginning,
As hopeless as it seems in the middle,
Or as finished as it seems in the end.
 
 
New SF Bay Area: not a typical market
That market is too far removed from reality...It will implode. It needs to.
It's certainly far removed from the gritty reality of the rest of the country, but there's a reason (actually several reasons, starting with weather, culture, cuisine, politics) that people would rather live here than in Muncie, Peoria or Hackensack. Obviously prices can't continue to rise at the rate they've been the last fifteen years—my 99 year-old crumbling manse, even with its foundation issues, would probably not have any takers in today's market at 4x its 1999 purchase price, but would be snapped up in a minute (with the Whole Foods Market shortly to open a hundred yards away) at 3x. I'm not particularly worried about an implosion.

cordially,
Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist.
New you sir are defaming Hackensack, a fine city
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 51 years. meep

reach me at [link|mailto:bill.oxley@cox.net|mailto:bill.oxley@cox.net]
New As you point out, those reasons have been there
so the increase in prices hasn't been related to "everyone wants to live here because....". And given the number of people leaving the Bay Area (and CA, too), it's certainly not true eveyone wants to live here at any price.

Prices haven't increased because of job or population growth, because the Bay Area has yet to recover from 2001, and population growth is basically negative or flat.

Oakland will get some major decreases, but not as bad as Brentwood, Antioch, Mountain House, etc. Some initial evidence for this - Notices of Defaults are way higher for Alameda county vs last year, but are up even higher for Contra Costa county.

But, yes, if you can pay your mortage, plan on staying put for a long time, and don't rely on your home's value going up (e.g. for cash-out refi, like many people have been doing), sure, a housing crash makes no difference.

--Tony
New Rather negative on home ownership
He is rather negative on home ownership, but he does have some good points about this housing market is going to play out.

The most important is that the housing market took more the a decade to overheat and could take just as long too cool off. We could see the ARM sell off hitting for years as interest rates go up.

Jay
     The housing crash? What crash? Where? - (folkert) - (19)
         He makes some good points, but he's a *little* pessimistic. -NT - (Another Scott) - (2)
             No, *Kunstler* is pessimistic - (drewk) - (1)
                 Or, a better link... - (a6l6e6x)
         Don't know what market he's in - (bepatient) - (14)
             Yeah, but nobody... - (folkert) - (6)
                 There's some beautiful countryside around Princeton. - (Another Scott) - (5)
                     Yeah, but the... - (folkert) - (4)
                         :-) Metropolitan areas are like that. - (Another Scott) - (3)
                             I guess you are not... - (folkert) - (2)
                                 I just took a tangent. :-) - (Another Scott) - (1)
                                     What do ya mean... Princeton - (folkert)
             Patrick.net is in SF Bay Area - (tonytib) - (6)
                 Re: Patrick.net is in SF Bay Area - (bepatient) - (5)
                     CA might be the center, but the problems will spread - (tonytib) - (1)
                         Cool. Maybe I can buy a forclosure. - (imric)
                     SF Bay Area: not a typical market - (rcareaga) - (2)
                         you sir are defaming Hackensack, a fine city -NT - (boxley)
                         As you point out, those reasons have been there - (tonytib)
         Rather negative on home ownership - (JayMehaffey)

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