First, we're not going to be totally out of Iraq (and Afghanistan) in 18 months.

Second, we need to spend billions more than are budgeted to replace all the military hardware torn up in the wars.

Third, Social Security and Medicare (especially the prescription drug benefit) costs are going to continue to increase.

Fourth, discretionary spending is only a small fraction of the budget.

Fifth, we're probably going to be increasing the size of the Army and Marines. People are expensive. 10,000 = $15B/yr.

Sixth, there's little hope of interest rates being as low as they were during 2002-2004, so interest costs on the debt will continue to rise.

Seventh, there's little prospect (short of a global recession) that oil prices will drop substantially. This increases costs to the military, weakens the dollar, puts pressure on interest rates, etc.

I could go on, but I think you get the point. The only way, right now, to balance the budget is to cut spending and increase taxes above the level they are now. That means doing away with substantial portions of Bush's tax cuts. Unless you think another boom like the .com boom (or the housing boom, or the early 1980s boom coming off a deep recession) is going to happen sometime soon?

It's easy to see that this Bush statement and any Bush budget that tries to implement it are merely a play to the "conservative" pundits so that they can try to claim that any future improvements are the result of his policies, and any future difficulties are the result of not implementing his plan in toto. It's fantasy.

If the budget is balanced in the next 5 years, it will be in spite of Bush's proposals and policies.

Cheers,
Scott.