Glen's Predictions for 2007

Technology
1. "Offshoring" starts to lose its luster as contract rates for Indian programmers begin to match those in the U.S. By end of year, Indian programmers surpass U.S. rates, because of the dollar's fall. Contract rates for India 2006 were already $25-30 an hour, plus turnover is very high.
2. "Inshoring" will be popular in middle America with low cost rates as Tulsa, Dallas, KC, St. Louis, Denver, OK City, Boise, Des Moines, and other "mid-America" cities benefits. Wages are $25-40 an hour for most development jobs. There is still the benefit gap, but stable employees will help a lot to these companies.
3. Apple will by Sun Microsystems.
4. PC Prices will rise in the U.S. for the first time in history.

Economy
1. The dollar will continue to fall against Euro, Yen, Yuan, and Rupee. Folks were already taking "shopping vacations" to the U.S. in 2006 from Europe. Expect the trend to accelerate.
2. Interest rates will rise dramatically, not because of the Fed, but because BOJ (Bank of Japan) will be setting rates. BOJ raised the prime from 0% to 0.25% in 2006. OPEC countries are already changing quotes for oil from dollars to euros. Dollars will be sold internationally, debt will become a problem.
3. Social security will "tip over" meaning that deficits will soar as interest rates soar. The U.S. govt will be scrambling to cut programs as we try to pay our interest on trillions of dollars. If we pull out of Iraq, it will be because we can't afford to continue fighting the war.
4. 2007 will start a 3 year downturn, until the U.S. dollar falls and exports rise enough to permit us to make interest payments on our debt.
5. Ford will go bankrupt. And GM will get close.
6. Oil will be $80-85 a barrel and gas will be $3.25 a gallon, average nationwide.

Politics
1. Other nations will "stick it to us" for our performance in Iraq, but privately, they will be coming here to buy cheap imports.

1. "Offshoring" starts to lose its luster as contract rates for Indian programmers begin to match those in the U.S. By end of year, Indian programmers surpass U.S. rates, because of the dollar's fall. Contract rates for India 2006 were already $25-30 an hour, plus turnover is very high.

To a certain extend this is already happening. Though Indian rates are still far below the US, the cost of the outsourcing itself means the rates have to be low for it to be cost effective.

What is happening is that companies are looking for other places to hire people. Eastern Europe is where the small companies look, you can easily hire a single small team of experienced programmers. China is where the big companies are looking. Expensive to setup but the hourly rates are minimal. China is so cheap that some Indian companies are sub-offshoring contracts to China.

2. "Inshoring" will be popular in middle America with low cost rates as Tulsa, Dallas, KC, St. Louis, Denver, OK City, Boise, Des Moines, and other "mid-America" cities benefits. Wages are $25-40 an hour for most development jobs. There is still the benefit gap, but stable employees will help a lot to these companies.

If companies where smart they would be looking for small companies in small towns to do this stuff. In Lancaster you can still hire a decent programmer for $15-20 an hour. Though of course you can't hire a lot, big projects that need dozens of programmers would have to go to bigger cities.

3. Apple will by Sun Microsystems.

Do you mean buy or be?

4. PC Prices will rise in the U.S. for the first time in history.

Are you thinking that Vista will require such heavy hardware that prices will rise as people buy more and more powerful systems? Or is there some other idea behind that?

Jay

Post #276,851 by gdaustin 12/28/06 11:28:19 AM Reply	Glen's Predictions for 2007 Technology 1. "Offshoring" starts to lose its luster as contract rates for Indian programmers begin to match those in the U.S. By end of year, Indian programmers surpass U.S. rates, because of the dollar's fall. Contract rates for India 2006 were already $25-30 an hour, plus turnover is very high. 2. "Inshoring" will be popular in middle America with low cost rates as Tulsa, Dallas, KC, St. Louis, Denver, OK City, Boise, Des Moines, and other "mid-America" cities benefits. Wages are $25-40 an hour for most development jobs. There is still the benefit gap, but stable employees will help a lot to these companies. 3. Apple will by Sun Microsystems. 4. PC Prices will rise in the U.S. for the first time in history. Economy 1. The dollar will continue to fall against Euro, Yen, Yuan, and Rupee. Folks were already taking "shopping vacations" to the U.S. in 2006 from Europe. Expect the trend to accelerate. 2. Interest rates will rise dramatically, not because of the Fed, but because BOJ (Bank of Japan) will be setting rates. BOJ raised the prime from 0% to 0.25% in 2006. OPEC countries are already changing quotes for oil from dollars to euros. Dollars will be sold internationally, debt will become a problem. 3. Social security will "tip over" meaning that deficits will soar as interest rates soar. The U.S. govt will be scrambling to cut programs as we try to pay our interest on trillions of dollars. If we pull out of Iraq, it will be because we can't afford to continue fighting the war. 4. 2007 will start a 3 year downturn, until the U.S. dollar falls and exports rise enough to permit us to make interest payments on our debt. 5. Ford will go bankrupt. And GM will get close. 6. Oil will be $80-85 a barrel and gas will be $3.25 a gallon, average nationwide. Politics 1. Other nations will "stick it to us" for our performance in Iraq, but privately, they will be coming here to buy cheap imports.
Post #276,854 by JayMehaffey 12/28/06 11:50:42 AM Reply	Re: Glen's Predictions for 2007 1. "Offshoring" starts to lose its luster as contract rates for Indian programmers begin to match those in the U.S. By end of year, Indian programmers surpass U.S. rates, because of the dollar's fall. Contract rates for India 2006 were already $25-30 an hour, plus turnover is very high. To a certain extend this is already happening. Though Indian rates are still far below the US, the cost of the outsourcing itself means the rates have to be low for it to be cost effective. What is happening is that companies are looking for other places to hire people. Eastern Europe is where the small companies look, you can easily hire a single small team of experienced programmers. China is where the big companies are looking. Expensive to setup but the hourly rates are minimal. China is so cheap that some Indian companies are sub-offshoring contracts to China. 2. "Inshoring" will be popular in middle America with low cost rates as Tulsa, Dallas, KC, St. Louis, Denver, OK City, Boise, Des Moines, and other "mid-America" cities benefits. Wages are $25-40 an hour for most development jobs. There is still the benefit gap, but stable employees will help a lot to these companies. If companies where smart they would be looking for small companies in small towns to do this stuff. In Lancaster you can still hire a decent programmer for $15-20 an hour. Though of course you can't hire a lot, big projects that need dozens of programmers would have to go to bigger cities. 3. Apple will by Sun Microsystems. Do you mean buy or be? 4. PC Prices will rise in the U.S. for the first time in history. Are you thinking that Vista will require such heavy hardware that prices will rise as people buy more and more powerful systems? Or is there some other idea behind that? Jay
Post #276,860 by gdaustin 12/28/06 1:11:40 PM Reply	buy

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