Ethiopia bombs towns, sends tanks into Somalia.
Published: December 24, 2006
ZANZIBAR, TANZANIA, Dec. 24 \ufffd Ethiopian warplanes attacked Somalia today, destroying a recruiting center for Islamist fighters and solidifying fears that a dreaded regional war has now begun.
According to witnesses, the warplanes bombarded several towns while Ethiopian tanks pushed aggressively into territory that had been controlled by Somalia\ufffds Islamist forces. That ignited fighting up and down the Somali coast, with Ethiopian troops locked in an escalating battle against Somalia\ufffds powerful Islamist movement.
\ufffdThe Ethiopians are blowing things up all over the place,\ufffd said Mohammed Hussein Galgal, an Islamist commander in Beledweyne, near the Ethiopian border. \ufffdCivilians have been killed, people are fleeing. But don\ufffdt worry, we won\ufffdt be defeated.\ufffd
Ethiopian officials said today that they had run out of patience with the Islamist leaders, who have declared war on Ethiopia and vowed to turn Somalia into a recruiting ground for anti-Ethiopian fighters.
\ufffdWhat did you expect us to do?\ufffd said Zemedkun Tekle, a spokesman for Ethiopia\ufffds information ministry. \ufffdWait for them to attack our cities?\ufffd Mr. Zemedkun said his country had initiated \ufffdcounter-attack measures in the interests of protecting our sovereignty and stability.\ufffd
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Ethiopia has the most powerful military in the region, trained by American advisors and funded by American aid. American officials have acknowledged that they tacitly supported Ethiopia\ufffds decision to send troops to Somalia because they felt it was the best way to check the growing power of the Islamists, whom American officials have accused of sheltering Al Qaeda terrorists. Until today, Ethiopian officials denied they had combat forces in Somalia, saying instead that their presence was limited to a few hundred military advisors.
That changed today when witnesses in several towns in Somalia reported seeing Ethiopian fighter planes shoot across the sky.
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I don't know much about the details of this conflict, but my impression is that this is going to either 1) be a tit-for-tat conflict that drags on for years; 2) going to be a low-level conflict with the potential for a conflagration; 3) going to quickly spiral out of control. I suspect it'll be closer to 3 than anything else. The Islamists, in general, don't seem to have much interest in compromise. On the other hand, Ethiopia's continuing conflict with [link|http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritria|Eritria] doesn't seem to be a battle between goodness on one side and evil on the other.
I can't see the UN or the US sending in an effective "peacekeeping" force. It's hard to imagine the Bush Administration doing more than providing continued covert assistance to its favored players.
All the indications are that this conflict will only result in thousands killed and maimed, destruction of infrastructure, displacement of thousands, and increased power for groups who advocate violence to impose a political system.
Just so I'm clear: I'm not saying that Ethiopia is wrong to take the actions it has. I don't know enough about it to make that judgement. I'm just saying that the conflict shows no signs of ending soon and looks like it is going to get worse.
[link|http://artists.letssingit.com/barry-mcguire-eve-of-destruction-s1m88lj|Hmmm...]
Cheers,
Scott.