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New Odds on Barak Obama
Curious what people think are the odds of the following happening in the next 10 years:

1. Obama runs for President.
2. Obama wins a run for President.
3. Obama eats a bullet.

This was brought about by a conversation I had with some friends in a car last night - they were very much convinced that he's the best thing in politics in a LONG time, and that if he ran for President, he'd get it. I'm much less convinced (he's !white, and sadly there's a lot of "liberals" out there who judge people by the color of their skin and not the content of their character) that he could win, and I fear if he did win, or looked like he had a chance of winning, that somebody would come out of the woodwork to make sure he didn't stay around to enjoy the fruits of his victory, whether it be some nutcase KKK freak or the Military-Industrial-Congressional-Evangelical complex.

Curious what all y'all think.
Odoru aho ni miru aho!
Onaji aho nara odoranya son son!
New Re: Odds on Barak Obama
[link|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=183051|My] [link|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=166449|opinions] on Barack Obama.

Perhaps my aforementioned time-frame will get moved up, and he'll only have 4 years of Senatorial service. Good part there is that (like Kerry, and unlike Edwards) he wouldn't lose his seat should he lose the election.
-YendorMike

"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."
- Benjamin Franklin, 1759 Historical Review of Pennsylvania
New ya notice how the repos are pushing him?
They know there is a snowballs chance of hell of the next president being a republican except for 2 things they are betting on. Hillary Clinton getting the nomination and in case the Democrats are smart enough to not select her, a black man. I personally would vote for him. I also think there is enough closet racists in the liberal Northeast that he might not be electable.
Listen to the repo talk shows. Hillary is electable.Osama might run. They dont ever discuss other potential dem candidates.
thanx,
bill
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 50 years. meep
New Ouch! That's a heck of a typo - what a difference...
...a single letter can make!
Listen to the repo talk shows. Hillary is electable.Osama might run. They dont ever discuss other potential dem candidates.
Who might run, you say?


   [link|mailto:MyUserId@MyISP.CountryCode|Christian R. Conrad]
(I live in Finland, and my e-mail in-box is at the Saunalahti company.)
Ah, the Germans: Masters of Convoluted Simplification. — [link|http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=1603|Jehovah]
New Obama for VP in 2008.
At the moment, I think it'll go something like this.

1) Hillary will win re-election to the Senate easily. The Senate will go Democratic, and Hillary will become an important person in the Senate leadership. (Dunno if she'll get an important committee chair.) She'll build a record to enable a later run for President.

2) Gore, Kerry, Edwards, and a few others will make serious efforts to run for the 2008 Democratic nomination. Hillary won't run in 2008.

3) Obama will feel pressure to enter the race, but will instead spend more time working on building a record in the Senate. He'll be asked to run for VP and will accept.

My guess is, the Democratic ticket will be Gore/Kerry/Edwards and Obama in 2008. As [link|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/23/AR2006102301033.html|Cohen] points out, Kerry, and Clinton have their Iraq vote hanging over their heads - as does [link|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/11/AR2005111101623.html|Edwards], but he has said he was wrong. Gore doesn't. A ticket with Obama would be quite formidable, assuming he has some substance to back up his eloquent words.

Choosing between Gore (who has indicated he's not interested in running), Kerry (who is interested, but has lots of baggage he'd have difficulty overcoming), and Edwards (who has some baggage but more importantly (remember that tape of him primping his hair?) is often regarded as a lightweight) is difficult at the moment. If X/Obama doesn't succeed, then Hillary and Obama will be well positioned in 2012.

Cheers,
Scott.
New History is against him
Only 2 presidents have comeout of the Senate in the past 75 years: JFK and Warren G. Harding in 1920.
lincoln

"Chicago to my mind was the only place to be. ... I above all liked the city because it was filled with people all a-bustle, and the clatter of hooves and carriages, and with delivery wagons and drays and peddlers and the boom and clank of freight trains. And when those black clouds came sailing in from the west, pouring thunderstorms upon us so that you couldn't hear the cries or curses of humankind, I liked that best of all. Chicago could stand up to the worst God had to offer. I understood why it was built--a place for trade, of course, with railroads and ships and so on, but mostly to give all of us a magnitude of defiance that is not provided by one house on the plains. And the plains is where those storms come from." -- E.L. Doctorow


Never apply a Star Trek solution to a Babylon 5 problem.


I am not merely a "consumer" or a "taxpayer". I am a Citizen of the United States.


[link|mailto:bconnors@ev1.net|contact me]
New He may have that beat
I suspect that the reason senators don't get elected is because they are on record for all sorts of votes that they made to keep single issue voters happy and screw the rest of their constituents. This guy hasn't been around long enough to warm up any bridges, much less burn them.
That said, he also hasn't been around long enough for anybody to tell what he'll really do in a crunch/for power/just for the money. He hasn't fucked up yet, but he doesn't have much of a public past either. I, personally, am unwilling to trust him as president with what he's got on the table, but I expect that he will be able to make hay with the fact that he's not screwed anybody over yet.
He's young. He will. He's a professional politician.
New The mosquitos are beginning to gather
His wife's recent 300% pay raise is raising some eyebrows:

His wife's income as an administrator at the not-for-profit University of Chicago Hospitals nearly tripled to $316,962, from $121,910.

In 2005, she was also elected to the board of directors of west suburban Westchester-based TreeHouse Foods, which calls itself the nation's largest pickle and pepper supplier. For that, she received $12,000 and $33,000 from a subsidiary.

She was promoted to the hospitals' vice president for community and external affairs in March. Obama said that his wife, who, like him, is a Harvard law school graduate, was deserving of the promotion and raise.

Her previous position was less demanding, he said, and because his Senate campaign had ended and she had more time to devote to her work, she was more marketable with her educational background and other strengths.

[link|http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/72374,CST-NWS-obama26.article|source]

He was on some Sunday morning show this past weekend (Tim Russert, IIRC) where Obama said that he is open to considering a run for the Presidency. Russert than showed a clip of Obama from last year where Russert asked the same question, and Obama distinctly stated that "he had no intention of running for President, and would definitely complete his term as Senator".

People are starting to dig into his past to see what, if anything, can be used against him.
lincoln

"Chicago to my mind was the only place to be. ... I above all liked the city because it was filled with people all a-bustle, and the clatter of hooves and carriages, and with delivery wagons and drays and peddlers and the boom and clank of freight trains. And when those black clouds came sailing in from the west, pouring thunderstorms upon us so that you couldn't hear the cries or curses of humankind, I liked that best of all. Chicago could stand up to the worst God had to offer. I understood why it was built--a place for trade, of course, with railroads and ships and so on, but mostly to give all of us a magnitude of defiance that is not provided by one house on the plains. And the plains is where those storms come from." -- E.L. Doctorow


Never apply a Star Trek solution to a Babylon 5 problem.


I am not merely a "consumer" or a "taxpayer". I am a Citizen of the United States.


[link|mailto:bconnors@ev1.net|contact me]
New To triple something is a TWO hundred % increase, not three.
New Obama for VP
More people seem to be picking Obama for VP. I tend to agree, in part because I think the number of people running is going to push Obama to the second tier. One of Hillary / Kerry / Gore will be the early front runner, Edwards / Biden / Obama and other will be snapping at their heels.

And that will put Obama in a great posistion to run for VP. Put himself a bit above the fray and not attack the other candidates and he will be a shoe in.

Jay
New Kunstler's take
[link|http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2006/10/enter_barack_ob.html|http://jameshowardku...er_barack_ob.html]

Like Lincoln, Obama is not completely formed politically. His lean face, like Lincoln's face pre-beard, needs filling out, as do his ideas and prescriptions for leadership. What he has in common with Lincoln is a gift for plain and convincing rhetoric. After decades of spin, PC euphemizing, neocon proxy speech, and similar bullshit, the public sees Obama as capable of straight talk. He told the last Democratic convention that there were no Blue or Red states but only a United States -- and after the crowd heard that they wanted to trade in John Kerry like a bad wedding present.

Obama, who is not up for re-election this fall, has cut a swath through the heartland to boost other candidates and has generated huge admiring crowds. Time Magazine columnist Joe Klein said on NBC's Meet the Press show this week that the crowds of mainly Midwestern white people seem to feel tremendous gratitude to Obama for not being Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson -- a seemingly odd point worth examining.

Obama's father was from Kenya and his mother from Kansas. He grew up mostly in Hawaii, with a four-year side-trip in Indonesia. He had a distinguished academic career at Columbia and Harvard. Though he is half-African he carries none of the baggage of stereotypical American black culture. He doesn't speak in the patois of the ghetto (or pretend to), and he appears not to possess a sense of implacable grievance for being who he is.

[snip]

The convulsion that a President Obama might be elected into would be one first of economics. Our industrial economy is going to fall on its knees when global energy scarcities gets traction. There is going to be a scramble for resources world-wide and here in North America, and we are all set up to fracture along ethnic and regional lines as that occurs. The presence of a suddenly overwhelming, non-assimilated Hispanic population will only make things more difficult.

A President Obama would also very probably face a geopolitical crisis as the US, China, Russia, Japan, Europe, and the Islamic nations jockey desperately over energy resources while their own populations grow restive, desperate, angry, and possibly aggressive. In other words, a President Obama would possibly face a world war, a civil war, and a great depression all at once. This is not a happy fate for any leader, and so perhaps in the public perception of Barack Obama, in the rising of his star, so to speak, the public apprehends the outlines of tragedy, just as the historical Lincoln is an incomplete picture without the tragedy of his murder a few days after the resolution of the terrible war he presided over.
He might be trying too hard to make the Lincoln parallel, and he doesn't really touch on how likely he thinks an Obama victory is. But it's an interesting viewpoint.
===

Kip Hawley is still an idiot.

===

Purveyor of Doc Hope's [link|http://DocHope.com|fresh-baked dog biscuits and pet treats].
[link|http://DocHope.com|http://DocHope.com]
Expand Edited by drewk Oct. 24, 2006, 08:33:28 PM EDT
New he's an idiot
The convulsion that a President Obama might be elected into would be one first of economics. Our industrial economy is going to fall on its knees when global energy scarcities gets traction. There is going to be a scramble for resources world-wide and here in North America, and we are all set up to fracture along ethnic and regional lines as that occurs. The presence of a suddenly overwhelming, non-assimilated Hispanic population will only make things more difficult.

what scarecities? ours and canadas reserve of oil sands are larger than Iraq Saudi Lybia and iran combined. The recent price increases were based on profiteering not supply as we are at 7 year highs
thanx,
bill
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 50 years. meep
New Heh.. think ya gots That right..
...after the fall :-0

I note that we have long been accustomed to ease {Boyo do we demand Ease}, abundance, automatic waste without-a-thought.. ie. no-brainer personal reliance on a vastly complex system just working invisibly, like the dial-tone.

(Wonder if that item, the dial-tone - achieves 12 Nines reliability? Does anything else? Must be numbers out there...)

The few Renaissance ruggedindividualists\ufffd will know how to scrounge; the vast majority prolly couldn't start a fire without a case of 10\ufffd *disposable* lighters (if they aren't child-proofed.)

So whatcha Want in a figurehead Leader, as things decline - is someone able to gently teach the sheep how to stifle that bleat-energy; use it instead to learn what fire is, how friction works - and why ya don't need a 4000# Tank to carry around a 170# (or more) biped.

That will be an exercise in tact, patience and teaching by demonstration - without dissing the sheep much, as then they'd be likely go off in a 2-yo tantrum and start destroying things. (Like after them feetball matches, n'such.)

I see Obama to possess a surprising facility in two of the three; likely he can mentor too









But do we deserve 'him'?

New The most popular football player is...
...the backup quarterback. The current quarterback is a bum that we can blame for all our losses. The backup will come in an save the day. Of course, once he's actually put in the game, he losses his popularity.

Well, politics is not too dissimilar. As long as Obama is not officially in the race, he will be the darling of the media. The second he announces for P||VP, his relationship with the media will completely change. Personally I'd vote for him, and I really car not whether he has a chance to win. If we're going to let the polls decide the outcome in advance, then we mind as well not bother voting.

As for assassination, I think it likely that any and all presidents are under a constant threat - no matter their race or politics. About the only thing you can do is have someone as VP that no one really wants to take over.
New I don't know why
but he reminds me of Abe Lincoln - young, tall, gangly, guileless, and wise.

I like his values, his stance, and his thoughtfulness.

I worry about his age, and his experience, but if there is a candidate who can rise above the mudpit, say what he believes, and get elected for it - he's probably it.



[link|http://www.blackbagops.net|Black Bag Operations Log]

[link|http://www.objectiveclips.com|Artificial Intelligence]

[link|http://www.badpage.info/seaside/html|Scrutinizer]
Expand Edited by tuberculosis Aug. 21, 2007, 06:03:10 AM EDT
New Did Abe get seriously called the antichrist?
If so, then the comparison is even [link|http://www.unfogged.com/archives/week_2006_10_22.html#005644|stronger].
-----------------------------------------
Draft Obama [link|http://www.draftobama.org/|now].
New isnt this where the religo whackjobs holler bring it on?
if they are right, not much they can do about it so they should shaddap and vote for him.
thanx,
bill
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 50 years. meep
New Come on "end times"! :)
Alex

When fascism comes to America, it'll be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross. -- Sinclair Lewis
New Is the antichrist gay?



[link|http://www.blackbagops.net|Black Bag Operations Log]

[link|http://www.objectiveclips.com|Artificial Intelligence]

[link|http://www.badpage.info/seaside/html|Scrutinizer]
Expand Edited by tuberculosis Aug. 21, 2007, 06:03:28 AM EDT
New If the Democrats nominate him.
I'll re-register as something else.
bcnu,
Mikem

It would seem, therefore, that the three human impulses embodied in religion are fear, conceit, and hatred. The purpose of religion, one might say, is to give an air of respectibility to these passions. -- Bertrand Russell
New What don't you like about him?



[link|http://www.blackbagops.net|Black Bag Operations Log]

[link|http://www.objectiveclips.com|Artificial Intelligence]

[link|http://www.badpage.info/seaside/html|Scrutinizer]
Expand Edited by tuberculosis Aug. 21, 2007, 06:26:36 AM EDT
New He is a Ronald Reagan.
Image over substance. This turkey was hand-picked by the SLC of the DNC (the Democrat's most extreme RW nutcases). He's tan, he's polished and all the ladies love to look at him. He's our guy. Aside from that, I'm not really fond of his voting habits. He voted "Yes" on this for example:

S Amdt 4775 to HR 5631: To provide $1,829,100,000 for the Army National Guard for the construction of 370 miles of triple-layered fencing, and 461 miles of vehicle barriers along the southwest border.

But then voted "No" on this:

S Amdt 4659 to HR 5441: To appropriate an additional $1,829,400,000 to construct double-layered fencing and vehicle barriers along the southwest border and to offset such increase by reducing all other discretionary amounts on a prorata basis.

So, let's just pull another 1.8 Billion out our asses for a fence. Great thinking there. I mean, it's not like we're in debt or anything.

And then there's his "Yes" vote on this:


HR 3199: To extend and modify authorities needed to combat terrorism, and for other purposes.

Project Vote Smart's Synopsis:

Vote to adopt a conference report that extends the authority of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to conduct \ufffdroving wiretaps\ufffd and access certain business records through December 31, 2009, and makes the remaining 14 provisions of the Patriot Act permanent.


I don't want to be affiliated with any party that nominates any turd that votes for making any part of the Patriot Act permanent. That last, alone, is enough to do it for me. This guy is unprincipled and Un-American.


bcnu,
Mikem

It would seem, therefore, that the three human impulses embodied in religion are fear, conceit, and hatred. The purpose of religion, one might say, is to give an air of respectibility to these passions. -- Bertrand Russell
     Odds on Barak Obama - (inthane-chan) - (21)
         Re: Odds on Barak Obama - (Yendor)
         ya notice how the repos are pushing him? - (boxley) - (1)
             Ouch! That's a heck of a typo - what a difference... - (CRConrad)
         Obama for VP in 2008. - (Another Scott)
         History is against him - (lincoln) - (3)
             He may have that beat - (hnick) - (2)
                 The mosquitos are beginning to gather - (lincoln) - (1)
                     To triple something is a TWO hundred % increase, not three. -NT - (CRConrad)
         Obama for VP - (JayMehaffey)
         Kunstler's take - (drewk) - (2)
             he's an idiot - (boxley) - (1)
                 Heh.. think ya gots That right.. - (Ashton)
         The most popular football player is... - (ChrisR)
         I don't know why - (tuberculosis) - (4)
             Did Abe get seriously called the antichrist? - (Silverlock) - (3)
                 isnt this where the religo whackjobs holler bring it on? - (boxley)
                 Come on "end times"! :) -NT - (a6l6e6x)
                 Is the antichrist gay? -NT - (tuberculosis)
         If the Democrats nominate him. - (mmoffitt) - (2)
             What don't you like about him? -NT - (tuberculosis) - (1)
                 He is a Ronald Reagan. - (mmoffitt)

Did she think she was going to land in the back of a Pier 1 truck carrying papa-san chairs?
96 ms