Taking advantage of our defeat in Iraq.

Post #270,937 by Another Scott 10/20/06 3:34:11 PM Reply	Taking advantage of our defeat in Iraq. [link\|http://blog.washingtonpost.com/earlywarning/2006/10/taking_advantage_of_our_defeat.html\|William Arkin] at the Washington Post: Many months later, the vision has been proven wrong, and we are no where near standing down. Iraq is close to anarchy, and American boys and girls are held hostage until after next month's elections and until after the new political line-up emerges. It is tragic, and there is no magical or easy answer. Withdrawal of U.S. forces is a foregone conclusion at this point. That is to say, it is one hundred percent certain that the United States will be out of Iraq before there is peace, Republican or Democratic rule. He's probably right. It would be nice to think that a regional conference of all the neighboring states would result in support for peacekeepers (or whatever you want to call them) for the Iraqi government to get on its feet, but I doubt that those states would see it in their interest. A partition of Iraq has superficial appeal, but we should remember the million or more who died in the India/Pakistan partition. Iraq would likely be worse. Yes, the violence may well increase when we leave, but the Iraqi people need to decide for themselves the type of state they want to live in. As in Vietnam, we can't help them win if they aren't willing to work to win (in sufficient numbers) themselves. I'm not convinced, yet, of the need for a timeline or a date certain, but it's clear that our day-to-day participation in security matters in Iraq needs to be significantly wound down quickly (meaning quarters, not years). Cheers, Scott.
Post #270,955 by Ashton 10/21/06 6:40:35 AM Reply	Charlie Rose: John Burns on his recent return to Baghdad :-/ - after a hiatus [NY Times bureau chief for Iraq: that Burns.] Apparently has a piece in NYT today (not yet on site), which he limned; half-hour with Charlie, brief recap of when/how things began to fail (..within a few days after US arrival in Baghdad.) Reiterates the 'Wasted Year\ufffd', en passant. Recurrent theme, with every single detail merely reinforcing (and no +'s worth mentioning) - It's. All. Falling. Apart. Period. Corollary: there is NOTHING the cabal can/could do, to reverse this accelerating overall collapse of 'government' thus of Order. (We already know that 'security' - is a matter of being enclosed within an armed phalanx.) It's only a matter of how rapidly the most dramatic nastiness arrives. It is already Every Man for Himself. He cited some huge numbers re Iraqis frantically seeking exit papers/arrangements - suggested the rate-of-growth of this phenom, along with the expansion of all forms of random-death activities, those numbers we see daily. Then there are all those other details within the mushrooming raft of Tell-all books (that are being Bought! in unexpectedly large press runs.) Admitting to a firm belief that, F = d(mv) dt - while having just scoped the Lehrer pix of today's 15 added US-dead - I don't believe the US population, however effete and intentionally iggerant -- will echo the Vietnam denouement. That is, the fact of the last quarter, third? of those 58,000 dead names on Ms. Lin's monument -- occurring after we'd decided to 'leave' == while Nixon fiddled in adjacent countries for PeaceWithHonor cha cha. So then, will it have to be over Shrub's dead body (is impeachment really off the table? Can we impeach in batches?) Marching in the streets again? Something NEW ____? this time around. I don't think that many would deem Burns to be an alarmist (that is, among those who know wtf he is.) What with DieBold and the massively funded RoveFearFlagSwift-boat skits, should be Interesting -- the next 17 days.
Post #270,983 by dmcarls 10/21/06 1:57:45 PM Reply	The sad truth Ashton, you're a good man, and I thank you for posting the entries that you do. But this is a matter of simple arithmetic and mechanics. The fact is, people have 'pain thresholds' for various things in their lives. The so-called 'run-rate' (an accounting term) for fatalities in Iraq is about 70-75 per month. This rate is below the pain threshold of most people, and therefore not worth any introspection time. A run-rate of 70-75 per week (not per month) would be well above their threshold and some action would be taken. I had alluded to this in an earlier post (which I can't seem to find) and you replied, hoping that I was wrong. Sad to say, but hope doesn't come into play here. Since the President has proclaimed that we won't leave Iraq as long as he is in office, and the next president will take at least 6 months to begin to do something about it, we have about 32 months or so left with a run-rate of 70 fatalities per month, or 2,500+. Added to our current toll of 2,800, you can expect to see about a minimum of 5,300 fatalities before this starts turnng around. All of this talk doesn't even touch upon the 21,000 US wounded, but of course, that's another story. Is impeachment really off the table? Yes. My two cents, but I don't think I'm wrong.
Post #271,138 by Ashton 10/24/06 4:22:49 AM Reply	I'm an optimist Somewhere between (that which we cannot know) the plans being spawned as we speak.. for exponentially raising the chaos-level amidst the Religio-drunk in Iraq ... and the day-after-day proof, that the Neoconmen have no agenda but to stump for invading Iran, Syria, San Francisco -- Something. Unexpected. is apt to save 'US' from Two More Years of feckless nonleadership across the board, Executive + Congress. A small asteroid would be kewl. Something Will arise - - (The planet can't handle 2 more years of Shrubbish. Period.) As sure as there are a dozen One-True-Gods in Heavens/Nirvanas/Paradises, with virgins + celibacy for all. Oh Ye of little faith! Obama is yo mama

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