Well, thus far these are all guesses, even at the top
Given that Mr. Il is only slightly more delusional (both about his cleverness and his prospects for creating a lasting dynasty) than the spawn of Roveowitz and the rest of the PNAC crackheads -- this dance is apt to continue indefinitely.
As for the implosion device and the possibility (likelihood) that this was about a fizzle -- deductions from the exact isotopic concentrations detected (plus time, location of samples and a bunch more data they'd better have gleaned) -- I doubt that we unwashed shall ever hear those results / as in Classified / as in the secrecy of this regime plus just plain standard military considerations.
ie. we aren't going to see these actual results - less'n Russ, Chinese see some utility in revealing more details from their samples. Cui bono?
As to Box's
until recently the technology on how to build a plutonium nuke was well published in detail.
As I've mentioned elsewhere: nope. Indeed the principles are long comprehended and the role of many details of the feature-set [like what a 'tamper' is; what FFF means] have been described.
But the myriad crucial details {fortunately} are not 'out there' - and I've paid attention to these recipes since the first. No proofs for negatives - but US/USSR-grade refinements likely remain unsold to highest bidder. Still, only a maniac believes the Super is necessary; that is about big cities, all-at-once.
Oh. Wait. So then: Putin + US remain the elder maniacs.
Also opined - I'm glad this megalomaniac narcissist is forced to solve the implosion riddle, rather than having piles of U
235. The downside is: if he does solve that difficult chain of perfection - he gets also a useable trigger for a Super, which would not be the case with a gun-type configuration {implosion is the Necessary scheme.}
Oh what a mangled web we ... when first we practice to annihilate all life. For peace.