Simple, we don't.
"1) How do we - the US - get Europe and Japan to remove their greater dependency on Arab OPEC oil?"
Simple, we don't. We are not responsible for them. Nor are we responsible for ensureing they have a sufficient supply of oil.
We get ourselves off of the oil and that shifts the whole focus of our foreign policy.
"2) What do we do to change the fact-of-nature that a large fraction of the world's proven reserves are in the Middle East?"
Simple, we don't. We get ourselves off of their oil. We don't try to change facts. We get ourselves off of their oil.
"3) What can the US do in the near term to dramatically reduce our dependence on imported oil?"
Define "near term". 6 months? 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 100 years?
The short answer is that we can't. This is a long term project.
But we do have some options. Just like back during the oil embargo. Remember that?
"These questions can't be answered simply, IMHO."
Actually, I think they can. But some of the answers will not be popular.
"Like you, I wish for a time when the world economy isn't so dependent on oil, and for a time when the US isn't dependent upon commodities from unsavory regimes."
Wishing will not make it so. Oil is the EASIEST fuel for us to use. Switching will be hard and will require some sacrifice.
"But the conventional approaches to this problem - conservation, increased fuel economy standards, etc., won't lead to dramatic near term improvements."
Again, "near term" needs to be defined. We've lived like this for too long. We can't switch over in a year.
But does that mean that we shouldn't plan to be off their oil in 20 years?
And 20 years away is always 20 years away until you take that first step that first year.
"The world economy will be greatly dependent upon oil for at least the next 10 years."
And wouldn't it be in our national interests to be the first nation off of their oil?
"I'd guess it's more likely to be dependent upon oil for at least the next 25 years."
The reality is that we will be dependent upon their oil for as long as they have the oil.
If we don't change ourselves, we must wait for the world to change.
"If you accept my guess that the world economy will be greatly dependent on oil for the next 25 years, what do you suggest be done to mitigate its adverse impact in our relations with the Middle East?"
Step #1. Next year we will import 1/20'th less oil from them.
Step #2. The year after, we will import 1/10th less oil from them.
and so on.
We also need to increase the mpg of our cars and do whatever we can to reduce the amount of oil each person consumes (buh bye SUV's).
Like I said, it won't be easy. But it is in our national interests to do so. And the sooner we start, the sooner we will be off of their oil.
"I personally feel the region will continue to be unstable - e.g. I expect upheavals in Saudi Arabia in the next 10 years - and that the political situation there will continue to deteriorate."
Agreed.
But the question is "why"?
What is it about that region that makes it so unstable when other portions of the world are stable?
Hmmmm?
Find the problem and the solution presents itself.
"But I don't know what can be done about it if moderate democracies don't take root there."
Again, why don't they?
Find the problem and the solution presents itself.
"But I've yet to see concrete proposals that I think will have much impact on the oil dependency situation."
Short term or long term?
We cut our oil usage back during the embargo.
But they know we're weak and oil-addicted.
So, they drop the price and we start buying SUV's.
The long term solution will not include gasoline powered SUV's.
Nor a lot of other "essentials" we have today.
Which is why these proposals aren't "feasible".
At least, they aren't "feasible" today.
We're addicted and we won't admit it.
