The point you are missing is that IE IS INSTALLED AND UNREMOVABLE IN EVERY PC MADE TODAY AND FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE. Netscape will NEVER EVER EVER catch up to IE, let alone surpass it unless this changes, no matter how many people use AOL.
You seem to be assuming that full-function computers will continue to be the dominant means of accessing the internet for the forseeable future. I believe (hope?) more people will start to recognize they don't need a thousand dollars worth of hardware to surf the net and check their email.
The day of the $300 full-function PC subsidized by long term online service contracts seems to be on the wane. We seem to be at a point where the only thing driving new purchases is games and (soon) home video production, ala iMovie.
I'm expecting (hoping again?) to see the first AOL branded internet appliance, running RedHat and Netscape, sometime this year.