While it's true that Hezbollah was started as a military movement, they are part of the government and Nasrallah (I'd love to see the etymology of that name) has larger political aims. Witness the speculation that he will try to use the recent events to gain more political power and the potential for civil war in Lebanon if he pushes too hard.

I can't help but think back to Sadat and the 1973 war. While neither side really won that war, Sadat forced Israel to recognize the ability of Egypt to fight them to a standstill. Shortly thereafter, serious peace negotiations began which ended up with Camp David, etc. Many argue that Camp David would have never happened without the 1973 war.

It would be nice to imagine a similar outcome in this case, but the circumstances and the rhetoric are very different. Neither side is talking seriously about a political solution. Perhaps a way will be found to spin so that Israel acknowledges that future conflicts can't be solved by Israel's imposition of its military, and perhaps Hezbollah will take the prestige it's gained and direct it toward improving the lot of Shias in Lebanon rather than picking fights with Israel. Perhaps...

I fear though that Nasrallah will view the outcome as a complete vindication and will think that he has nothing to lose by ratcheting up the conflict again in a few weeks or months. Especially if the arguments with Iran start to become heated again...

:-(

FWIW.

Cheers,
Scott.