"Years" == "never"

Post #264,899 by drewk 8/15/06 9:49:20 AM Reply	"Years" == "never" Former mid-east advisor to six National Security Directors made a point on the radio yesterday. Hezbollah is not the armed faction of a larger movement. It formed as an armed unit. It's entire identity is that of an armed unit. To say "disarm Hezbollah" is the same as saying "eliminate Hezbollah". While you could argue semantics, I expect the Hezbollahi[1] would agree with the sentiment. [1] Heard that term for the first time yesterday. === Purveyor of Doc Hope's [link\|http://DocHope.com\|fresh-baked dog biscuits and pet treats]. [link\|http://DocHope.com\|http://DocHope.com]
Post #264,903 by Another Scott 8/15/06 10:30:24 AM Reply	Yeahbut. While it's true that Hezbollah was started as a military movement, they are part of the government and Nasrallah (I'd love to see the etymology of that name) has larger political aims. Witness the speculation that he will try to use the recent events to gain more political power and the potential for civil war in Lebanon if he pushes too hard. I can't help but think back to Sadat and the 1973 war. While neither side really won that war, Sadat forced Israel to recognize the ability of Egypt to fight them to a standstill. Shortly thereafter, serious peace negotiations began which ended up with Camp David, etc. Many argue that Camp David would have never happened without the 1973 war. It would be nice to imagine a similar outcome in this case, but the circumstances and the rhetoric are very different. Neither side is talking seriously about a political solution. Perhaps a way will be found to spin so that Israel acknowledges that future conflicts can't be solved by Israel's imposition of its military, and perhaps Hezbollah will take the prestige it's gained and direct it toward improving the lot of Shias in Lebanon rather than picking fights with Israel. Perhaps... I fear though that Nasrallah will view the outcome as a complete vindication and will think that he has nothing to lose by ratcheting up the conflict again in a few weeks or months. Especially if the arguments with Iran start to become heated again... :-( FWIW. Cheers, Scott.
Post #264,906 by drewk 8/15/06 10:52:12 AM Reply	Oh, it'll escalate again Another point made in the same interview was that Assad is looking for payback for the expulsion of Syrian troops from Lebanon. By funding Hezbollah, he can wage war on Israel while Lebanon takes the brunt of the retaliation. Win-win. === Purveyor of Doc Hope's [link\|http://DocHope.com\|fresh-baked dog biscuits and pet treats]. [link\|http://DocHope.com\|http://DocHope.com]
Post #265,010 by Ashton 8/15/06 8:47:22 PM Reply	Re: Yeahbut. I fear though that Nasrallah will view the outcome as a complete vindication ... If they are taking a cue from Shrub's presumptions about the meaning of an election 'dead heat' as: mandate. And.. why should they not fix on our convenient example of 21st Century Leadership? Oh and :-/
Post #265,126 by bluke 8/17/06 6:22:50 AM Reply	The difference between Nasrallah and Sadat is ... that Sadat was not a religious fundamentalist. Sadat did not feel a religious imperative to destroy Israel. Therefore, when he felt it was in Egypt's interest to make peace with Israel he did. Nasrallah and Ahmadinejad on the other hand, are Islamic fundamentalists and real believers. They really believe that Islam should rule the world and that Israel has no right to exist on Muslim lands. They are not going to compromise on their religious principles and therefore there is little chance for real peace.
Post #264,908 by JayMehaffey 8/15/06 11:09:14 AM Reply	There will be something called Hezbollah Former mid-east advisor to six National Security Directors made a point on the radio yesterday. Hezbollah is not the armed faction of a larger movement. It formed as an armed unit. It's entire identity is that of an armed unit. To say "disarm Hezbollah" is the same as saying "eliminate Hezbollah". In a sense yes, but I expect Hezbollah to survive as a political movement long after it ceases to be a military group. It will be very different, but there will be a group called Hezbollah. I looked up some of the details of the UN resolution. The resolution, read litterally, requires Hezbollah to disarm, then Israel to pull out and then Lebanon and the UN will move in as Israel moves out. The odds of that happening are zero. For this to work people are going to have to ignore the exact wording of the resolution and do what can work. Jay

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