[Syrian President] Bashar's love affair with Hezbollah is attributed by some observers to naivete. "A Syria that can be manipulated by Hezbollah, which acts, in turn, under Iranian guidance, could well miss the crucial moment when Iran and Hezbollah attempt to spark a huge conflagration . . . on Israel's northern border," says Israeli commentator Ehud Ya'ari. "A weak and naive Syria acts as an accelerator for Hezbollah, not a brake."
Such interpretations are founded on the conventional wisdom that Hezbollah remains first and foremost an Iranian proxy. However, Iranian funding for Hezbollah was long ago surpassed both by contributions from expatriate Lebanese Shi'ites and by revenue from the movement's array of commercial businesses in Lebanon. Since Syria and its Lebanese satellite are capable of impeding these money transfers, Hezbollah's financial situation is ultimately more dependent on its relations with Damascus than with Tehran.
Hezbollah does, in fact, appear to be gearing up for a major conflagration with Israel. According to Israeli intelligence reports, Iranian arms shipments to Hezbollah have accelerated, and the group now has an estimated 7,000 Katyusha rockets capable of hitting Israeli territory throughout the Galilee and up to the outskirts of Haifa. Hezbollah is also nearing completion of an extensive defense line deep in the heart of south Lebanon, designed to obstruct the advance of invading Israeli tanks.
It is likely, though, that if Hezbollah is planning a dramatic escalation of hostilities with Israel, it will come at a time of Syria's choosing.