Data Source. This report relies on the March 2003 Current Population Survey (CPS) collected by the U.S. Census Bureau. The March data, also called the Annual Social and Economic Supplement, includes an extra-large sample of minorities and is considered one of the best sources of information on the foreign-born.4 The foreign-born are defined as persons living in the United States who were not U.S. citizens at birth.5 For the purposes of this report, foreign-born and immigrant are used synonymously. The Survey includes most legal immigrants and is thought to capture roughly 90 percent of the illegal alien population. We use the term illegal alien or illegal immigrant to mean those who responded to the survey who are in the United States without authorization. All other foreign-born persons are referred to as legal immigrants, including those with Permanent Residence, those who are naturalized American citizens, and those living in the United States on long-term temporary visas, mainly guest workers and foreign students.

[...]

Identifying Illegal Aliens. The CPS does not ask the foreign-born if they are legal residents of the United States. However, the Urban Institute, the former INS, and the Census Bureau have used socio-demographic characteristics in the data to estimate the size of the illegal population. To determine who are legal and illegal immigrants in the survey, this report uses citizenship status, year of arrival in the United States, age, country of birth, educational attainment, sex, receipt of welfare programs, receipt of Social Security, veteran status, and marital status. We use these variables to assign probabilities to each respondent. Those individuals who have a cumulative probability of one or higher are assumed to be illegal aliens. The probabilities are assigned so that both the total number of illegal aliens and the characteristics of the illegal population closely match other research in the field, particularly the estimates developed by the Urban Institute.

This method is based on some well-established facts about the characteristics of the illegal population. For example, it is well known that illegals are disproportionately male, unmarried, under age 40, have few years of schooling, etc. Thus, we assign probabilities to these and other factors in order to select the likely illegal population. In some cases we assume that there is no probability that an individual is an illegal alien. If an individual reports that he is U.S.-born or a naturalized citizen of the United States, then he is assumed not to be an illegal alien. Someone who reports that he is veteran or receives veteran benefits is also assumed not to be an illegal alien. Those individuals who report that they personally receive Social Security benefits, cash assistance under Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF), Supplemental Security benefits (SSI), or who are enrolled in Medicaid are also assumed not to be illegal aliens. However, other members of a household headed by an illegal alien can receive these programs, mostly the U.S.-born children of illegals. It is worth noting that our findings show that only a tiny fraction of households headed by illegals receive cash welfare programs or Social Security benefits. However, a large share of children in illegal alien households use the school lunch program or are enrolled in Medicaid. Our methodology allows for such a possibility.

We estimate that there were 8.7 million illegal aliens in the March 2003 CPS. It must be remembered that this estimate only includes illegal aliens captured by the March CPS, not those missed by the survey.10 By design this estimate is very similar to those prepared by the Census Bureau, the former Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), and the Urban Institute.11 Although it should be obvious that there is no definitive means of determining whether a respondent in the survey is an illegal alien, the findings in this study are consistent with previous research. For example, the Urban Institute estimated that in 2002 Mexicans accounted for 57 percent of the illegal population; our method finds 58 percent in 2003. Using 2003 data, we estimate that 88 percent of illegals arrived after 1990; the Urban Institute estimated 85 percent using 2002 data.12 Our results also produce estimates that are similar in other areas, such as age and workforce participation.

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And these figures are for all immigrants, not specially for the one-fourth of the foreign-born who are illegal aliens.

Virginia is struggling with cultural changes brought on by a rise in legal and illegal immigration over the past decade.

The state is home to more than 200,000 illegal immigrants, up 50,000 from 1996, according to a study for the Pew Hispanic Center. The number of Virginians born outside the United States has grown from 311,809 in 1990 to 570,279 in 2000, according to the census.

A Washington Post poll taken Sept. 6 through Sept.9 showed that in Virginia, 33 percent of registered voters think "the growing number of immigrants" has been bad for their communities, compared with 21 percent who believe it is good.

"Virginia has definitely emerged as a new gateway state, and it looks like the politics of immigration there are starting to resemble what we've seen in California or Arizona," said Michael Fix of the Migration Policy Institute, a nonprofit think tank in Washington that tracks immigration law. "The big political and legal question that is taking shape right now is, where will we draw the lines on this issue?

Citizenship

.......................Men ................Women
Citizen ..............20.7% ...............23.3%
Desire Citizenship ...72.0% ...............72.1%
Don't Want Citizenship 7.3% ................4.6%

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Educational Attainment
....................Men .... Women
Less Than 7th Grade 28.2% .. 24.7%
7th to 12th Grade ..23.3% ...24.3%
HS Degree or GED ...17.8% ...23.5%
Some College .......10.4% ....8.9%
Associate Degree ....7.4% ....4.9%
BS Degree ...........5.9% ....8.5%
Post Graduate .......5.0% ....1.6%
Other ...............2.0% ....3.6%

Years in United States
...................Men .... Women
Fewer Than 5 Years 7.2% ....12.2%
5 To 9 Years .....16.9% ....23.3%
10 to 14 Years ...46.2% ....41.6%
15 Years or More .29.7% ....22.9%

Years in Fairfax County
....................Men ....Women
Fewer Than 5 Years 25.0% ...28.2%
5 To 9 Years ......25.5% ...31.4%
10 to 14 Years ....35.7% ...29.4%
15 Years or More ..13.8% ...11.0%