Love the cavalier attitude

Post #248,099 by bepatient 3/16/06 11:54:16 AM Reply	Love the cavalier attitude Iran could just stop exporting oil is the position...based in what and on whose reality? Does this writer actually believe that Iran isn't just as reliant on that income as the world market is on their oil? Does he also think that Iran's real trading partners for oil wouldn't be highly disappointed (China) and retaliate in kind. AND, while our energy price would go up again, hasn't this issue been put to rest already? Our enery costs have nearly tripled in the last 24 months and it has not derailed the economy. (cue pending doom tympani) If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. _{Fudd's First Law of Opposition} [link\|mailto:bepatient@aol.com\|BePatient]
Post #248,100 by ben_tilly 3/16/06 12:16:51 PM Reply	They just have to slow it down And when asked, give as an excuse, "Our oil infrastructure was damaged by the American attacks. We're trying to get it back online, but we don't know how quickly that will happen." Which means that everyone who depends on that oil, including China, will blame the USA for the shortages. Given that China right now has the ability to really damage the US economically (just by stopping buying long-term US bonds - which are likely a bad investment for China anyways), this could become very "interesting" very quickly. The rise in price from uncertainty will offset the reduced export, so this will not cost Iran as much economically as you might think. And as I said, politically their asses are already covered because the blame has been shifted. Cheers, Ben I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
Post #248,149 by bepatient 3/16/06 6:51:24 PM Reply	But thats not what was printed the point was that folks just pitch that out like its a real possibility. Just stop selling oil...that'll learn em. The point is not that there are better ways to skin the cat (like the scenario you put forth)..but that people that claim to know better don't seem to actually know better. If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. _{Fudd's First Law of Opposition} [link\|mailto:bepatient@aol.com\|BePatient]
Post #248,160 by ben_tilly 3/16/06 8:26:40 PM Reply	But what was printed demonstrates the risk I agree that most commentators haven't actually thought their scenarios through. However they tend to be freaking out about hypotheticals that bring up real risks, even if the risks wouldn't actually play out like they initially thought. So while I agree with you that they're wrong in fact, they are not entirely wrong in principle. Cheers, Ben I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
Post #248,101 by Simon_Jester 3/16/06 12:59:32 PM Reply	I notice that you ignored the main question..... is the US trying to provoke a war with Iran?
Post #248,150 by bepatient 3/16/06 6:52:23 PM Reply	Because I wasn't commenting on that ...D'uh! If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. _{Fudd's First Law of Opposition} [link\|mailto:bepatient@aol.com\|BePatient]
Post #248,102 by boxley 3/16/06 1:05:14 PM Reply	take a look at the Iranian economy people are already pissed because government spending is driving Iran into a hole. They could use oil leverage to stop sales to the US by working with other like minded producers, Nigeria, Venezuela etc to not ship here. That would hurt us more than them. thanx, bill Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 50 years. meep

Welcome to IWETHEY!