Post #239,871
12/30/05 6:42:41 PM
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You'll have to do better
Democratic presidents have consistently higher economic growth and consistently lower unemployment than Republican presidents. If you add in a time lag, you get the same result. If you eliminate the best and worst presidents, you get the same result. If you take a look at other economic indicators, you get the same result. There's just no way around it: Democratic administrations are better for the economy than Republican administrations. Doesn't mention the stock market. It goes on BTW. Under Democratic presidents, every income class did well but the poorest did best. The bottom 20% had average pretax income growth of 2.63% per year while the top 5% showed pretax income growth of 2.11% per year.
Republicans were polar opposites. Not only was their overall performance worse than Democrats, but it was wildly tilted toward the well off. The bottom 20% saw pretax income growth of only .6% per year while the top 5% enjoyed pretax income growth of 2.09% per year. (What's more, the trendline is pretty clear: if the chart were extended to show the really rich \ufffd\ufffd\ufffd the top 1% and the top .1% \ufffd\ufffd\ufffd the Republican growth numbers for them would be higher than the Democratic numbers.)
In other words, Republican presidents produce poor economic performance because they're obsessed with helping the well off. Their focus is on the wealthiest 5%, and the numbers show it. At least 95% of the country does better under Democrats.
The economy is not that great and we are pissing our seed corn away at a tremendous rate on BS wars we don't need to fight. Doesn't look too solid to me. There was also a political cartoon showing a bunch of christmas stockings on a mantle - all large but one tiny one labeled "wages". That about sums it up I think.
"Whenever you find you are on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" --Mark Twain
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them." --Albert Einstein
"This is still a dangerous world. It's a world of madmen and uncertainty and potential mental losses." --George W. Bush
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Post #239,887
12/30/05 8:16:51 PM
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Tom Toles: 12/25/2005. 39 kB .img
[image|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinion/ssi/images/Toles/c_12252005_520.gif|0|Santa brings and empty bag|440|520]
Sums it up pretty well, I think.
I don't have much faith I have in any of these historical comparisons of how well the economy did under various administrations. There has to be some sort of accounting for inflation and how one does that is a black art (IMO). Even things like the unemployment rate and initial claims for unemployment are affected by changes in the definitions over time.
The thing that concerns me most is that we're not investing for the future the way we were in the 1950s, 1960s and early 1970s. If you believe the savings rate information out there, as a country we're not saving any more. That's a very bad thing. Perhaps increases in interest rates will help turn that around and decrease our net consumption. But I wonder how those who are turning 18 or so now will react to tighter money....
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #239,888
12/30/05 8:45:41 PM
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Your first link
was a stock market study that averaged over 75 years. My comment re: the market was very simple...the 90s were an anomaly and need to be removed to make that study realistic. It did not eliminate worst and best Presidents. That comment was directed to that link.
My next comment was that the second link did a much better job of showing better dem performance on >the economy<.
Your second link also shows that 95% are better off on >non election< years and that the 95% number flips during election years to the Republican side.
And while you talk about the economy currently being shitty..it simply is unsupported by ANY indicator. It may be that spending and debt increases are mortgaging a future, a point that Ben is sure to raise and rightly so. But first time home sales have been strong (last month was the first drop in quite a while), overall growth is still over 3% and closer to 4%, unemployment is at 5 and dropping, we're operating at a pretty reasonable strength of the dollar on the world market (though we still need to export something to get our balance numbers back in line).
What you have in common with everyone else is the >feeling< that the economy is shit...but it is unsupportable based on the indicators.
If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. Fudd's First Law of Opposition
[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
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Post #239,890
12/30/05 9:09:08 PM
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One indicator supports it
[link|http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/051226/26wage.htm|http://www.usnews.co...051226/26wage.htm] points out that in the last year wages have not kept pace with inflation.
Which means that, other rosy indicators notwithstanding, the average person is worse off today than they were a year ago.
(This is on top of the debt and deficit figures which indicate that we have a more painful accounting waiting for us.)
Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #239,894
12/30/05 9:14:21 PM
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Dont know too much about that but this year was the
first time since 1998 I have equalled my wages in 1998, knock wood. I have been working for far less. Do those figures indicate only hourly or professional wages?
thanx,
bill
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 50 years. meep
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Post #239,897
12/30/05 9:23:09 PM
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And this is due to a late
inflation push largely because of the energy increase. Real wage growth was 3.6 and inflation was 4.2.
Next year this is predicted to [link|http://www.newkerala.com/news.php?action=fullnews&id=76719|change] however.
If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. Fudd's First Law of Opposition
[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
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Post #239,902
12/30/05 10:58:26 PM
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Re: And this is due to ---- projections R'us?
As always, your numbers have no {boxes} for what I can see, even in bucolic Sonoma County, where many do ordinary work; many come from The City to play, drink expen$ive or cheap wines, etc.
I can see the changes in bucolic Sonoma County - in faces, the kinds of stuff people are selling-off, how long basic car maintenance is deferred (mechanic-based datum), the crowded thrift shops, etc. etc. No {boxes} for these and dozens others.
Just as there is no {box} for - (as always, in these Q/As)
the massive concentration of National Wealth (accelerating trend - for those who Like projections) into smaller and smaller %numbers,
nor the social, political and practical consequences of the purchased, non-elected political control over representatives - by Corporations (domestic and extra-National).
Is surreal too strong a word for Econ 'calculations'? of 'general prosperity to 3 decimal places'? Regularly missing too, from these periodic vector-graphic Solutions - -
some handy Velocity-of-Deconstruction [?] entry {box}; this re the continuing decline of {all those matters we group under the rubric, crumbling infrastructure} -- let alone the even more innumerate, Quality of Liff thing. These are word-things as supersede number-things. Except when doing numbers in lieu of Looking Around.
But then, such matters as cannot be rendered to 3 or 4 decimal places are not Real in an MBA curriculum, apparently do not exist in The Model, wherein i [sq.root -1: that i] must surely be that missing humanizing factor \ufffd -
applied whenever the homeless, soon-to-be with loss of next paycheck, become Too visible, or the ratio of CIEIO payments / ordinary-people-'wages': needs another decimal-point move to --> the Right. Nope, don't see \ufffdactors for those conditions anywhere in that hoary catechism, still floating, waterlogged on the heroic persona of that real-daid Keynes guy.
Oh, did I mention: pshaw?
OK - pshaw.
(Robert Reich, [Ex-Sec Labor] nowadays occasionally heard live on NPR - is able to meld The Numbers with the consequences ... ever so much more jocularly, even if sobbing all the while.) Maybe you need a humor editor, esp. when spreading the Good News about ~ How Well everything is a goin?
At least, come up with a Laugh-er Curve with a viable Satisfiction Quotient, so that humans can ~relate to Numerologists ..well, a little, since some of these may have actually begun from human stock, before Bizness proved to be their only survivable path to some kind of degree.
I,
who admit to many decades immersed in numbers - too.
(But none of my 'projections' killed people, that I'm aware.)
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Post #239,925
12/31/05 9:11:34 AM
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And your anectodal
has no numbers whatsoever.
And don't start on the "quality of life" feelings, because those who can't afford that second beemer are suffering.
Yes my bleeding heart friend there is more to be done, but that is hardly the point being discussed.
If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. Fudd's First Law of Opposition
[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
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Post #239,914
12/31/05 1:13:36 AM
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Those indicators indicate a likely net loss of disposable $$
-- Rising pay, with disposable incomes rising by 3.2 percent, after inflation, more than double this year's gain;
So the average Joe might see an extra $2000 per year.
-- Costlier borrowing, with short-term interest rates averaging about 4.5 percent and longer-term rates around 4.9 percent;
Which he is going to shovel into his interest only variable rate mortgage because he can't afford a fixed conventional.
-- Moderate inflation, with the consumer price index rising 3 percent during 2006, down slightly from 2005;
Which seems likely to eat what the mortgage didn't.
-- Healthy corporate profits, with growth around 7.9 percent; and
Seems the corps are seeing double the gains of the peeps.
-- Strong hiring, with unemployment remaining at a historically low 5 percent.
But with attendant low wages to which we are becoming accustomed because if we don't take em our jobs are headed to Mumbai.
The reason people say the economy is shit is because to them the economy feels like shit and we are just barely makin' it month to month with many of us just 2 paychecks from bankruptcy.
Real wage growth here remains solidly negative once cost of living and rising variable rate mortgages are figured in. I'm guessing things would improve a lot if we stopped blowing deficits through the roof for awhile. After all, the common Rep mantra is that the Clinton surplus wasn't his doing - the smokin economy just landed it in his lap. If this is so and the economy is really doing well, I would expect to see deficits begin to shrink fast. Somehow I don't see that happening without regime change.
"Whenever you find you are on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" --Mark Twain
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them." --Albert Einstein
"This is still a dangerous world. It's a world of madmen and uncertainty and potential mental losses." --George W. Bush
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Post #239,926
12/31/05 9:21:27 AM
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????
Can't afford a fixed? Then you can't afford the house you bought. Please don't blame personal financing choices lest we start the same discussion I just tried to avoid with Ashton.
3.2 AFTER inflation. That is real wage growth, another positive indicator. And if you understand that inflation is to be about 3 to 3.5 you'll also see that workers are going to see an improvement at the same level as the corp...about 7-8%.
And the entir eeconomy is NOT under threat to have programming jobs moved to India. If you want to view the entire economy through the filter of IT, thats fine...I don't. Your glasses are going to be decidedly less rosey for a long time to come, as your comparison point (the 90s) will never be matched.
If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. Fudd's First Law of Opposition
[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
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Post #239,932
12/31/05 12:05:32 PM
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Not just IT
Microelectronics, too. Even here, my employer has been hiring people at ridiculously reduced wages (and it's an insurance company!) - People take the jobs from desperation.
And - predictions of inflation drops? Inflation will drop all right - but ONLY because most people can't afford the goods AT ALL. That is NOT an indication of a healthy economy. It's an indication that people have been tapped out.
If you want to say that the economy is gonna rise because it's hit rock bottom and has no place else to go, I say "no". We can sink WAY lower. I fear that if more profit-taking is encouraged at the expense of the workers, it WILL get worse. A government that only works for short-term profit taking, and NOT investment in the future, investment in the workers, infrastructure if you will, is the worst thing that can happen to this country - and THAT'S what we've got. Add to that the fact that we are hemmoraging money into an elective war, and we've got trouble. No need to theorize, though. We'll see whch of us is right (God help us!) - the view from the ground, or the vew from the mansion.
Imric's Tips for Living
- Paranoia Is a Survival Trait
- Pessimists are never disappointed - but sometimes, if they are very lucky, they can be pleasantly surprised...
- Even though everyone is out to get you, it doesn't matter unless you let them win.
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Nothing is as simple as it seems in the beginning,
As hopeless as it seems in the middle,
Or as finished as it seems in the end.
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Post #239,935
12/31/05 1:07:40 PM
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I think it's going to go something like this...
1) Interest rates will keep rising, slowly, for the next couple of years. Average people with high consumer-debt burdens will be hurt.
2) The housing bubble will stop inflating and "investors" chasing quick profits will move into stocks again. People who have to sell homes bought in the last ~3-5 years will be hurt. The stock market will go through another mini-boom, fed by mergers and acquisitions. "Day trading" might even see a renaissance, but as before small traders will lose their shirts.
3) Heavy manufacturing, airlines, auto manufacturing, home construction, etc., will continue to be under heavy pressure. Union jobs in manufacturing and in government will be under increasing pressure to accept lower wages and greater financial contributions to benefits.
4) Immigration will continue to put pressure on wages in the service and construction sectors, and off-shoring will continue to put pressure on white-collar wages.
5) We're sending huge amounts of money overseas every day. E.g. In September, the average cost of an imported barrel of oil was [link|http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/petroleum_marketing_monthly/current/txt/tables01.txt|$58.79]. In that month we imported about [link|http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_NUS-Z00_mbblpd_w.htm|10.2 Mbbl/day]. That's $600 M per day. There is no indication that that number will do anything but increase in the next few years.
Many of these changes are probably inevitible, but that doesn't mean we don't have a responsiblity to think about what it means for the future and what we should be doing to preserve our standard of living.
I don't think the next few years are going to be a good time economically for the country. Those who have money to lose and who can afford to be in the stock market may do very well. JQ Public who has 20 years in at John Deere or Ford or Boeing is going to be hurting.
Many areas of the country are hurting very badly now. E.g., Dayton, Ohio is suffering terribly due to problems with General Motors and Delphi and due to problems with the city government. Many parts of the midwest have a terrible problem with methamphetamine addiction and crime. We shouldn't just shrug it off and tell everyone to move to Alabama to get a job at Hyundai or to Mexico to work for VW.
We, as a country, need to be thinking about how we make the transition from manufacturing and services with $50-$75/hr wages (with benefits) to $25-$30/hr wages. We're not going to keep our standard of living by having huge swaths of the workforce have to take 2-3 jobs to have the same income.
We need to be investing in new technologies - and in more than just medicine, better CGI for movies, and music players! We're not going to win by racing China, Afghanistan, Mali and Burma to the bottom of the wage scale. We've got to invest in our strengths - smart people; invention; the world's broadest technology base; innovative capital markets; etc.
Why don't we have an efficient, modern, fast, nationwide rail system? Why don't we have an electrical grid in the nation's capital that doesn't suffer from frequent [link|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/metro/specials/manholes/|manhole explosions] and a sewer system that doesn't [link|http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=451&sid=608547|dump raw sewage into the rivers when it rains]? Why don't we have traffic lights that adjust for increasing traffic flow during the day? Why do we have to cross our fingers every summer that the electric grid will survive a heat wave or that an ice storm won't cut power to hundreds of thousands of homes for weeks? Why? Because we have been too short-sighted.
I think this time is different than the previous few decades. Just looking at the raw inflation, GDP growth, unemployment, etc., numbers doesn't show the stress that the economy is under. Japan is coming out of its doldrums. Germany is getting back on its feet, and China continues to grow like gangbusters (one has to wonder though, how long will it last?). When our economy slows down again, as it will, the rest of the world won't have to wait for us the way they did in the past. We could easily be left behind unless we invest in our future.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #239,936
12/31/05 1:23:08 PM
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Another Scott for President!
You have my vote! :-)
Peace,
Amy
"It's never too late to be who you might have been." ~ George Eliot
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Post #239,955
12/31/05 8:50:40 PM
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Microelectronics????
We've NEVER held much in that game. Thats been to China and those areas for years already. How can you export a job that was never here in the first place?
If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. Fudd's First Law of Opposition
[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
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Post #239,967
12/31/05 11:25:29 PM
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"NEVER"?
TI, Fairchild, Motorola, RCA, GE, IBM, Western Electric, ... all had substantial semiconductor manufacturing operations. There's still a lot of defense-related stuff that is still done in the USA.
The transistor was invented at Bell Labs. The integrated circuit was invented at TI (and Fairchild). DRAM was invented at Intel, as was the general purpose microprocessor. Intel was a memory powerhouse before they were a CPU powerhouse.
NEVER is a bit too strong...
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #239,992
1/1/06 9:52:19 AM
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Never is what adults say
when they mean a "very long time".
We used to make TV sets too.
I will certainly not argue that we need to reclaim a manufacturing base in this country, especially in base industry like steel. One thing that will have to be corrected very soon is healthcare. It is one of the main issues really dragging on employment in "good" sectors of the economy.
If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. Fudd's First Law of Opposition
[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
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Post #239,961
12/31/05 10:46:10 PM
12/31/05 11:12:47 PM
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Then I can't afford the job I have
unless I want to jettison wife and kid and return to lifestyle I had in college.
House prices are inversely proportional to employment rates.
I'm not exactly unique in this - Seattle has a severe housing shortage and concurrent job boom (Boeing has a bunch of orders) which means that manufacturing people are getting the same screw job.
Think bay area circa 1999. Greedy on the housing? I looked for over 9 months to find something - eventually you have to just get something. During my search, prices went up 25%. Don't think I'm unique - we're getting our old jobs back at less pay but the expenses aren't getting any lower and its not IT specific.
"Whenever you find you are on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" --Mark Twain
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them." --Albert Einstein
"This is still a dangerous world. It's a world of madmen and uncertainty and potential mental losses." --George W. Bush
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Post #239,979
1/1/06 2:07:24 AM
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Actually our whole economy is under threat
We are engaged in full-scale knowledge transfer. Which is basically giving away our competitive advantage.
Any time anyone talks about our educated and innovative workforce, I just remember where our education system actually ranks in the industrialized world (near the bottom) and wonder whether some latent racism keeps people from realizing that there are plenty of smart people in China and India.
Sure, we have a great history of innovation. But innovation requires smart people with a knowledge base to work from. There are plenty of smart people elsewhere. The knowledge base is moving as well. It is a matter of time until the innovation does as well.
And if you talk about how many people come to use our education system, I'll point out how England was in that situation in the late 1800s, and Germany was in the 1920s. All of those smart people went to the best universities, and over time a lot of them took their brains and skills back home. That is how the USA got going, and it is happening rapidly in China and India right now.
Cheers (not),
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #240,047
1/1/06 9:21:53 PM
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I absolutely agree
Combined with our complete willingness to offshore manufacturing...not only are we training them..we're giving them the hardware.
Its a trend that really needs to stop.
If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. Fudd's First Law of Opposition
[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
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Post #240,052
1/1/06 9:44:38 PM
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Well said.
Heck, I've thought about buying stock in an Indian bank (HDFC Bank Ltd. (ticker HDB)) traded on the NYSE. The bank will do well with the rising professional population in India.
Alex
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. -- Bertrand Russell
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Post #239,930
12/31/05 10:46:33 AM
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dittos on the fixed mortgage, you greedy on housing
as far as 2 paychecks away from insolvency I have been supporting myself since 1968 and have never been more than 2 paychecks from bankrupcy.
thanx,
bill
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 50 years. meep
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Post #239,893
12/30/05 9:12:15 PM
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we all know capitalism is selling surplus
unescessary to the dumb in excess of cost of production. That is why politics is so interesting to the rich and the schemers. The american economy has moved from production to sales and service, the money supply is about the same as it has been, so transfers have to be made on blue sky speculation and trending. Enron is a fine example. Selling energy it didnt have to maroons in California far in excess of any poential cost. How did they get away with it? Stupidity and greed. Stupidity of the politicians who couldnt understand how to purchase power and politicians who were greedy. Unfortunately for Lay et al, their greed turned stupid and they ended up caught.
thanx,
bill
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 50 years. meep
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