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New What portion of the country is devout?
You're arguing that I'm talking about a minority of a minority and then tarring all Christians.

This is unfair. I said up front devout Christians. Most people are not that devout, devout Christians are a subset of all Christians. I'm very specifically not saying all Christians, just devout ones. Here we're identifying 15% of the population as being devout based on behaviour, and we find that Bush won by 2-1 odds in that group.

But let's change that slightly. Let's widen it to people who are devout enough to go to Church weekly (which is what most religions say that you're supposed to do). If we take the 44% of the population that goes to Church at least once a week we find that (does some calculations) Bush won over Kerry by 60% to 39%. That's a 3-2 margin, which is still fairly overwhelming.

Now there is one thing that I got wrong. These are figures for those who voted. Voter turnout was pathetic. If we make an obvious correction, what I should have said is, an overwhelming majority of voters who call themselves devout Christians voted for Bush in the last election. I think that the evidence is pretty clear for that statement.

Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
New I'll accept that.
60/39 isn't what I'd call 'overwhelming', though it is a clear majority.

"...minority of a minority and then tarring all Christians"


Actually, I saw your qualifier - I just don't accept that "most devout"="devout". My problem was that ANDREW seemed to be making that argument.
[link|http://www.runningworks.com|
]
Imric's Tips for Living
  • Paranoia Is a Survival Trait
  • Pessimists are never disappointed - but sometimes, if they are very lucky, they can be pleasantly surprised...
  • Even though everyone is out to get you, it doesn't matter unless you let them win.


Nothing is as simple as it seems in the beginning,
As hopeless as it seems in the middle,
Or as finished as it seems in the end.
 
 
New If you assume the polls had a representative sample...
New Polling is fairly accurate
We know how to do it. We know how to do it wrong, but we also know how to do it right. Normally we do a decent job of it.

Furthermore it isn't just one poll, every major poll that I've seen in the last few years which addresses any variant of this question has come up with the same basic answer. The more religious you are, the more likely it is that you support Bush. Unless all polling organizations have serious methodology problems (which I strongly doubt), the country is politically polarized along religious grounds.

:-(Incidentally that kind of polarization is a significant risk factor for totalitarianism.)-:

Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
New Is it "religious" or "church going christian"?
I'd be interested to know how Bush played with orthodox jews and devout muslims for instance.



"Whenever you find you are on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect"   --Mark Twain

"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them."   --Albert Einstein

"This is still a dangerous world. It's a world of madmen and uncertainty and potential mental losses."   --George W. Bush
New IIRC, both of those flipped
In 2000 Bush lead among Muslims and lost among orthodox Jews.

In 2004 Bush lead among orthodox Jews and lost among Muslims.

Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
     Pat Robertson:Democratic judges greater threat than Al Qaeda - (tuberculosis) - (42)
         Democratic judicial appointments? - (warmachine) - (38)
             I'm sure that Republican judges who are not . . . - (Andrew Grygus) - (37)
                 I assume there's no need to 'Run!'? - (warmachine) - (2)
                     he's running for president :-) -NT - (boxley)
                     He tried - (JayMehaffey)
                 And it is the underlying sentiment.. - (bepatient) - (33)
                     The terrible part - (JayMehaffey) - (23)
                         How do you know? - (bepatient) - (21)
                             I have no problem with faith based charity - (tuberculosis) - (6)
                                 I do.... - (Simon_Jester) - (5)
                                     so you are against privitization of government? - (boxley) - (4)
                                         Maybe so.. - (hnick) - (2)
                                             thats what audits are for. -NT - (boxley) - (1)
                                                 I thought they were to get rid of thetans. -NT - (pwhysall)
                                         So does the United Way and Red Cross.... - (Simon_Jester)
                             Not most, all - (JayMehaffey) - (13)
                                 Same for tsunami relief. - (Andrew Grygus) - (12)
                                     Oooh. Threats. - (imric) - (11)
                                         Skip, you're an exception - (ben_tilly) - (10)
                                             Are you sure? - (imric) - (9)
                                                 Look at your link more closely - (ben_tilly) - (7)
                                                     Extremes - (imric) - (6)
                                                         What portion of the country is devout? - (ben_tilly) - (5)
                                                             I'll accept that. - (imric)
                                                             If you assume the polls had a representative sample... -NT - (Another Scott) - (3)
                                                                 Polling is fairly accurate - (ben_tilly) - (2)
                                                                     Is it "religious" or "church going christian"? - (tuberculosis) - (1)
                                                                         IIRC, both of those flipped - (ben_tilly)
                                                 agreed the repo in my house isnt an ardent church goer - (boxley)
                         What he said. - (jb4)
                     OK, so there are some moderate Christians . . . - (Andrew Grygus) - (2)
                         Re: "crosses instead of swastikas" - (a6l6e6x) - (1)
                             Not actually, despite the German name. - (Andrew Grygus)
                     Tolerance is supposed to be a 2 way street - (hnick) - (1)
                         Re: Tolerance is supposed to be a 2 way street - (bepatient)
                     Uhh, Bill? Put a cork in it. - (jb4) - (3)
                         Uh, no. - (bepatient) - (2)
                             Didn't you see "Independence Day"? - (jb4) - (1)
                                 Oh yeah... - (bepatient)
         s/biggest threat to America/most representative of Americans - (mmoffitt)
         Robertson's in a class by himself. - (Another Scott)
         Since he's wrong... - (andread)

Phrasers on STUN er SHUN!
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