Post #205,769
5/3/05 6:06:46 PM
5/3/05 6:07:14 PM
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Are you sure?
That it wasn't that the overwhelming majority of those who voted for Bush called themselves 'devout'? *grin*
What percentage of the citizens of this country are Christian? 'Christian'?
What percentage of those voted for Bush? Is THAT number 'overwhelming'?
A quick google yielded this:
[link|http://people-press.org/commentary/display.php3?AnalysisID=103|http://people-press....p3?AnalysisID=103]
Here, it can be seen that religious composition of the vote DID favor Bush, but it's by no means overwhelming. There was a big (10%) percentage jump in evangelicals voting for Bush, but they weren't even near a majority of voters.
IOW, there is no 'overwhelming majority' of Christians that voted for Bush as a whole, though a majority of a minority subset of 'Christians' did.
[link|http://www.runningworks.com|
] Imric's Tips for Living
- Paranoia Is a Survival Trait
- Pessimists are never disappointed - but sometimes, if they are very lucky, they can be pleasantly surprised...
- Even though everyone is out to get you, it doesn't matter unless you let them win.
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Nothing is as simple as it seems in the beginning,
As hopeless as it seems in the middle,
Or as finished as it seems in the end.
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Edited by imric
May 3, 2005, 06:07:14 PM EDT
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Post #205,770
5/3/05 6:20:58 PM
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Look at your link more closely
The sub-table titled "Church Attend". That's across all denominations, and measures devoutness pretty concretely - how often you go to Church.
The vote was about evenly split among those who claim to go to Church a few times a month. People who go more frequently were for Bush. People who go less frequently were against Bush. At the maximum frequency of several times a week, Bush won 64-35, which I'd call a pretty overwhelming margin. At the minimum frequency of never, Kerry won 63-36, which is likewise pretty overwhelming.
I've seen other pre-election polls where people were asked how devout they were and who they planned to vote for. The results were pretty much in line with the results that your link shows.
There is a strong correlation in this country between how devout you are (measured in any reasonable way) and how likely you are to support Bush.
Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #205,781
5/3/05 6:59:21 PM
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Extremes
At the maximum frequency of several times a week, Bush won 64-35; 16%
At the minimum frequency of never, Kerry won 63-36; 15%
Again, the 'overwhelming majority' only applies to minority sets.
[link|http://www.runningworks.com|
] Imric's Tips for Living
- Paranoia Is a Survival Trait
- Pessimists are never disappointed - but sometimes, if they are very lucky, they can be pleasantly surprised...
- Even though everyone is out to get you, it doesn't matter unless you let them win.
|
Nothing is as simple as it seems in the beginning,
As hopeless as it seems in the middle,
Or as finished as it seems in the end.
|
|
Post #205,784
5/3/05 7:30:03 PM
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What portion of the country is devout?
You're arguing that I'm talking about a minority of a minority and then tarring all Christians.
This is unfair. I said up front devout Christians. Most people are not that devout, devout Christians are a subset of all Christians. I'm very specifically not saying all Christians, just devout ones. Here we're identifying 15% of the population as being devout based on behaviour, and we find that Bush won by 2-1 odds in that group.
But let's change that slightly. Let's widen it to people who are devout enough to go to Church weekly (which is what most religions say that you're supposed to do). If we take the 44% of the population that goes to Church at least once a week we find that (does some calculations) Bush won over Kerry by 60% to 39%. That's a 3-2 margin, which is still fairly overwhelming.
Now there is one thing that I got wrong. These are figures for those who voted. Voter turnout was pathetic. If we make an obvious correction, what I should have said is, an overwhelming majority of voters who call themselves devout Christians voted for Bush in the last election. I think that the evidence is pretty clear for that statement.
Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #205,792
5/3/05 7:45:08 PM
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I'll accept that.
60/39 isn't what I'd call 'overwhelming', though it is a clear majority. "...minority of a minority and then tarring all Christians" Actually, I saw your qualifier - I just don't accept that "most devout"="devout". My problem was that ANDREW seemed to be making that argument. [link|http://www.runningworks.com|
] Imric's Tips for Living
- Paranoia Is a Survival Trait
- Pessimists are never disappointed - but sometimes, if they are very lucky, they can be pleasantly surprised...
- Even though everyone is out to get you, it doesn't matter unless you let them win.
|
Nothing is as simple as it seems in the beginning,
As hopeless as it seems in the middle,
Or as finished as it seems in the end.
|
|
Post #205,795
5/3/05 7:58:12 PM
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If you assume the polls had a representative sample...
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Post #205,798
5/3/05 8:08:19 PM
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Polling is fairly accurate
We know how to do it. We know how to do it wrong, but we also know how to do it right. Normally we do a decent job of it.
Furthermore it isn't just one poll, every major poll that I've seen in the last few years which addresses any variant of this question has come up with the same basic answer. The more religious you are, the more likely it is that you support Bush. Unless all polling organizations have serious methodology problems (which I strongly doubt), the country is politically polarized along religious grounds.
:-(Incidentally that kind of polarization is a significant risk factor for totalitarianism.)-:
Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #205,811
5/3/05 11:07:10 PM
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Is it "religious" or "church going christian"?
I'd be interested to know how Bush played with orthodox jews and devout muslims for instance.
"Whenever you find you are on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" --Mark Twain
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them." --Albert Einstein
"This is still a dangerous world. It's a world of madmen and uncertainty and potential mental losses." --George W. Bush
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Post #205,819
5/4/05 12:10:38 AM
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IIRC, both of those flipped
In 2000 Bush lead among Muslims and lost among orthodox Jews.
In 2004 Bush lead among orthodox Jews and lost among Muslims.
Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #205,804
5/3/05 8:55:01 PM
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agreed the repo in my house isnt an ardent church goer
just likes bush and takes him at face value. And the campeign to push out negatives on backfired, she took one look at moore, said he is an asshole and ignored all other statements made about bush
thanx,
bill
All tribal myths are true, for a given value of "true" Terry Pratchett
[link|http://boxleys.blogspot.com/|http://boxleys.blogspot.com/]
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 48 years. meep
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