Post #189,416
1/8/05 2:16:57 PM
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Insurgents in Iraq getting better at bomb making
[link|http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200501/s1278827.htm|ABC News] Insurgents in Iraq have been using more powerful makeshift bombs in the past two weeks, including a recent roadside attack that killed seven US troops in an armoured vehicle, a Pentagon military official has said. It appears that the insurgents are still getting more organized and more sophiticated. This is bad news for those that hoped the insurgency had reached it's peak. There are "a lower number of IEDs, but they have been more powerful," Brig Gen Rodriguez said, noting that a powerful explosion in north-west Baghdad on Thursday took the lives of seven American troops in an armoured Bradley fighting vehicle. A bomb big enough to take out a Bradley would have to be pretty big or well designed. If they can keep that up it will be very bad for our side. Jay
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Post #189,423
1/8/05 3:35:42 PM
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This is going to get bad, very bad . .
. . and very bloody. Faced with ever mounting U.S. casualties and civilian casualties that will make the tsunami look like small potatoes, the U.S. will have little choice but to back out like a beaten dog with its tail between its legs.
The U.S. will be thought of as a stupid incompetent bully with a crubling infrastructure for decades after. The Republicans will win every election for decades by appealing to "patriotism" and the "war on terror" - until there is no more money to pour into the welfare (red) states.
[link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #189,435
1/8/05 10:43:04 PM
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Tossup - money or manpower
This is going to get bad, very bad . . . . and very bloody. Faced with ever mounting U.S. casualties and civilian casualties that will make the tsunami look like small potatoes, the U.S. will have little choice but to back out like a beaten dog with its tail between its legs. I consider it a toss up, we could either run out of money or run out of manpower. Which will happen first is liable to depend on how Bush puts forth a draft. If he can get any significant support for it, the army will be able to get enough manpower to stay in the field until we run out of money. The U.S. will be thought of as a stupid incompetent bully with a crubling infrastructure for decades after. The Republicans will win every election for decades by appealing to "patriotism" and the "war on terror" - until there is no more money to pour into the welfare (red) states. Our reputation is already shot. But I'm not so sure about the Republicans ability to win the next elections. If the Republicans do manage to ruin the American economy, it could bring down the party. Jay
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Post #189,447
1/9/05 1:15:58 AM
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I can't see any situation in which a draft is reinstated.
I can't see a draft being reinstated in the next 5 years - unless there's some unforeseen catastrophe, and even that is not a sure thing, IMO. The Army doesn't want a draft, the Congress doesn't want a draft, the President doesn't want a draft, the country doesn't want a draft. What's the constituency pushing for it? (I mean other than people who bring it up for attempted political advantage.) A draft wouldn't solve the troop shortage in Iraq. It would take months for a draft to get started, and many months more to get significant numbers through basic training. I doubt that any significant increase in deployable troop strength would result for 2 years after a draft started. Other ways will be found to get more troops into Iraq if necessary: 1) Continued adjustments of deployments in other countries; 2) Stop-loss; 3) Increased financial inducements; 4) Reorganization of existing divisions into more active fighting units; 5) Other. #4 is addressed in [link|http://www.military.com/NewContent/0,13190,Defensewatch_102703_Army,00.html|this] commentary from October 2003: During the late 1970s until 1991, we maintained 16 division equivalents with 770,000 soldiers. This was an average of 48,000 soldiers per division. We now have 11 division equivalents on a real strength of 600,000. This is on average 54,000 troops per division. And this 600,000 number does not include the large active Guard/reserve cohort in the National Guard Bureau's structure and in the redundant parallel USAR bureaucracy.
Clearly, we did not improve our efficiency in the application of military manpower. Simply adding more money and manpower without fundamentally changing our methods will not yield any substantial increment in deployable combat forces. Mobilizing two more divisions would only yield six additional combat brigades at the best. Yet, this mobilization would require at least 110,000 more soldiers.
Including Special Operations Forces, let's assume the Army now has 35 maneuver brigade equivalents. The true number is lower because SOF is not that big and I included two armored cavalry regiments. And assume these brigades have 3,000 soldiers each. The real number here is far closer to 2,000 because: (a) battalions don't have 950 men each on the TOE and (b) virtually no battalions are being manned at 100 percent strength. But we'll ignore these practical factors. 35 x 3,000 = 105,000.
Question: Where are the other 500,000 troops and what are they doing? The nation deserves a soul-searching and honest answer by the Army, the Department of Defense and the Congress before it yields up one more soldier or one more penny of debt. This is something of rhetorical question because I know where they are. At least 50,000 are in the Military District of Washington. Vast numbers are being soaked up by USAREC, TRADOC and the personnel system practicing to re-enact the World War II mass mobilization. Tens of thousands more are sitting around Army Material Command shuffling paper and watching private contractors actually conduct material operations. He makes a good point. Overhead is a big problem and a draft won't solve it. Fundamental restructuring of the Army division structure might. Otherwise, Rumsfeld was right - We went to war with the Army we had, not the Army we would like to have. And we'll have to figure out a way to win with it. Unfortunately. :-( My $0.02. And hey, it's not like I haven't been wrong before. ;-) Cheers, Scott.
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Post #189,457
1/9/05 11:11:25 AM
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Re: I can't see any situation in which a draft is reinstated
I can't see a draft being reinstated in the next 5 years - unless there's some unforeseen catastrophe, and even that is not a sure thing, IMO. The Army doesn't want a draft, the Congress doesn't want a draft, the President doesn't want a draft, the country doesn't want a draft. What's the constituency pushing for it? (I mean other than people who bring it up for attempted political advantage.) The Pentagon and the Whtie House keep saying they don't want a draft, but at the same time they are putting in place the plans and rebuildings the systems to do so. My impression is that the military is torn about a draft and the White House likes the idea but realizes it would be very unpopular unless they have some good reason. A draft wouldn't solve the troop shortage in Iraq. It would take months for a draft to get started, and many months more to get significant numbers through basic training. I doubt that any significant increase in deployable troop strength would result for 2 years after a draft started.
Other ways will be found to get more troops into Iraq if necessary: 1) Continued adjustments of deployments in other countries; 2) Stop-loss; 3) Increased financial inducements; 4) Reorganization of existing divisions into more active fighting units; 5) Other. There are two possible drafts at this point. The first is the special skills draft, which would be aimed at drafting personal with skills the military is sort of. These people would mostly get a short basic training and then be assigned to someplace they can use their specific skill. These people would not be going on the front line, and could be ready for assignment in a few months. I suspect that this is what the military wants, a draft aimed at filling in gaps in medical and technical specalties. The other possibility is a general draft. What I expect in this case is that these people would, at first, be used to free up full time troops to go to Iraq. That way they could get by with less training over the short term. I suspect the push for this is coming from the White House, specifically from the Neocon group that not only wants to win in Iraq, but wants to start another war or two before Bush leaves office. For their plans to go forward, they really need a draft to bulk up the Army. As for other alternatives to find more troops, they have all been used already. There is only so much that can be done that way, and we are reaching the limit. But a draft is by no means a sure thing at this point. Bush and company had to so forcefully deny a draft during the election, and the very idea is so unpopular in the us, that they will need some major pretext to start one. Jay
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Post #189,474
1/9/05 12:40:02 PM
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It'll be staged
First the infrastructure needs to be be put in place - progressing well. It doesn't have to work right, just work sorta - in fact the more loopholes in it the wealthy can buy their kids through the better.
Next will come the "special skills" draft. This won't be a problem for Bush because these people come primarily from the hated Blue States.
The definition of "special skills" will escalate until the Welfare (Red) State people have become accustomed to it. Then will will come a "special crisis" (real or trumped up) and a multizillion dollar PR appeal to "patriotism".
Then the big decision: Iran, Syria, or both?
[link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #189,483
1/9/05 1:33:50 PM
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Syria no matter what
I expect the US to start hitting targets across the Syrian border any day now. And I don't mean chasing targets across the border, I mean deep penetration to hit distant targets. Some of this may be happening already, without being reported. This will start on a small scale, and slowly escalate until we either pull out of Iraq or are effectivly at war with Syria.
There is just too much pulling for war with Syria, both practical problems of arms and supplies coming across the border into Iraq and ideological goals of controlling that territory.
Iran is a different and bigger problem. Their military does not stack up to ours, but it will be tougher to beat then Saddam's. Particularly if we don't have control in Iraq at the time and we have a huge back area to protect while moving forward. Iran is really out of the question until we have a large scale draft, because we would minimally need 150 to 200 thousand troops on the ground and probably much more down the road to control the territory after the invasion.
Your thought about a narrow skill draft slowly being expanded until "can pull trigger and keep head down" is considered a special skill is scary though. That is far too likely to happen even if the planners didn't mean it to at the start.
Jay
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Post #189,495
1/9/05 2:18:24 PM
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Syria will wait on Israel/Palestine elections, Iraq, etc.
Things are finally moving, slowly, in a hopeful direction in Israel and Palestine with it looking like a new Palestinian president being elected today and with Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in the works. Any actions by the US against Syria would make it very difficult for such progress to continue (it would inevitably be presented as a US/Israeli plot).
I don't see the US attacking Syria, Iran or North Korea (or anyone else) anytime soon. (Even putting troops into Darfur would be extremely difficult.) We don't have the capability and it would inflame things. It also, clearly, wouldn't improve the situation in any of those countries in the short term.
Yes, the US will put political pressure on Syria, Iran and to some extent North Korea. But military action is not in the cards as long as we're tied down in Iraq.
Remember Bush was speaking about Iraq for 2 years before we invaded. He's made some comments, but has done nothing comparable to prepare the public for such actions.
My $0.02.
Cheers, Scott.
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Post #189,502
1/9/05 4:01:40 PM
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Iran is definitely out of the question . . .
. . until cruise misile stocks are fully replenished.
[link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #189,569
1/10/05 10:41:03 AM
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Clever!
The other possibility is a general draft. What I expect in this case is that these people would, at first, be used to free up full time troops to go to Iraq. That way they could get by with less training over the short term. And there is a bonus. Drafting people to stand around out of harm's way is an easier political sell than sending them to Iraq. Cheers, Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #190,102
1/13/05 5:00:52 PM
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Perhaps you have just predicted the next Big Thing!
My impression is that the military is torn about a draft and the White House likes the idea but realizes it would be very unpopular unless they have some good reason. Hmmm...Some good reason...like, say, a "tactical" nookular explosion somewhere in Pennsylvania (or some other Blue state) that can be "shown" to have come from those al Qaida cells that Iraq is teeming with. Then we can have our draft....
jb4 shrub\ufffdbish (Am., from shrub + rubbish, after the derisive name for America's 43 president; 2003) n. 1. a form of nonsensical political doubletalk wherein the speaker attempts to defend the indefensible by lying, obfuscation, or otherwise misstating the facts; GIBBERISH. 2. any of a collection of utterances from America's putative 43rd president. cf. BULLSHIT
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Post #189,462
1/9/05 11:19:56 AM
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What happens if (when?) Iraq isn't stable in 12/2005?
That'll be when roughly 40% of our force there (Guard and Reserves) will have served out their 2 year active duty hitch. Think many will re-up? Think recruiting will pick up?
And if you don't think 40,000 insurgents can last that long, ask our friends the Brits how long the Irish insurgents lasted.
I'll grant that if Iraq isn't able to stand on its own two feet by the end of this year, we'll just stop-loss the Guard and Reserves, find some loophole that we can use to extend their active duty committment and hope and pray there aren't massive desertions.
This is holy hell, boys. And not one of those draft-dodging sons-of-wealthy-bitches knows anything about war. The only upside is that should the worst (most likely?) outcome present itself, maybe, just maybe the neocons won't blame Clinton for it. Of course if they do, I have no doubt that a majority of God-fearing sheeple in Jesusland will believe it was Clinton's (and the Democrats) fault, probably for not doing enough to "support our troops" or because they "hate uh-Murica" or some such.
We deserve this in uncountably many ways.
bcnu, Mikem
Eine Leute. Eine Welt. Ein F\ufffdhrer. (Just trying to be accepted in the New America)
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Post #189,470
1/9/05 11:59:15 AM
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Chuckle...they don't have to re-up...
That'll be when roughly 40% of our force there (Guard and Reserves) will have served out their 2 year active duty hitch. Think many will re-up? Think recruiting will pick up? They don't have to re-up...that's what stop-loss orders are for. Oh wait, we're already doing that....
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Post #189,446
1/9/05 12:40:55 AM
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there is a crapload of cash and explosives in Iraq
the owners of the cash have a vested interest in killing our soldiers. There is many spetznatz trained Iraqi operatives who are now actively engaged against the US. We will have troops die and be named in large numbers. To avoid this the following has to occur.
We need to identify all caches of miltary supplies stashed since the invasion and destroy it. That wont hapen until the previous owners allie themselves with the americans. That pretty much fucks the shiites out of any say in the government. That pretty much fucks up the status quo. regards, daemon,
that way too many Iraqis conceived of free society as little more than a mosh pit with grenades. ANDISHEH NOURAEE clearwater highschool marching band [link|http://www.chstornadoband.org/|http://www.chstornadoband.org/]
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Post #190,405
1/16/05 4:30:09 PM
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Ah, so we all admit they're insurgents now?
No more the Iraqi people hating us and resisting us? No more Minutemen?
Just checking.
---------------------------------------------------------------- Well, pardon us for winning the election. Memo to Democrats and to the Left: hatred is not a substitute for vision. "All the news you wish would go away" [link|http://www.angelfire.com/ca3/marlowe/index.html|http://www.angelfire...arlowe/index.html]
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Post #190,415
1/16/05 7:30:21 PM
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Read the dictionary:
insurgent
adj : in opposition to a civil authority or government [syn: seditious, subversive] n 1: a person who takes part in an armed rebellion against the constituted authority (especially in the hope of improving conditions) [syn: insurrectionist, freedom fighter, rebel] 2: a member of an irregular armed force that fights a stronger force by sabotage and harassment [syn: guerrilla, guerilla, irregular]
Just what do YOU think insurgent means? Some sort of outside force?
[link|http://forfree.sytes.net|
] Imric's Tips for Living
- Paranoia Is a Survival Trait
- Pessimists are never disappointed - but sometimes, if they are very lucky, they can be pleasantly surprised...
- Even though everyone is out to get you, it doesn't matter unless you let them win.
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Nothing is as simple as it seems in the beginning, As hopeless as it seems in the middle, Or as finished as it seems in the end.
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Post #190,417
1/16/05 7:37:16 PM
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He was thinking "outsurgent"
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Post #190,418
1/16/05 7:37:57 PM
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:-D
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Post #190,419
1/16/05 7:51:35 PM
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Darn! This sort of thing happens every time . . .
. . you have a major firmware update. It'll be months before all the bugs are out.
[link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #190,526
1/17/05 10:30:39 PM
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the Iraqi people dont hate us?
why are they trying so hard to kill our kids? splain please.
The fighters are legitimate fighters against an occupation. If they put down their weapons, never fired another shot, went to the polls and voted. Rebuilt the infrastructre (about 2 years) the amercian troops would be back in America and out of Iraq? They dont think so and would rather force them to pull out by killing as many as possible. That is why we need to kill all these people so the rest of the Iraqis know we are there to help them and will sit down and shut the fuck up. regards, daemon
that way too many Iraqis conceived of free society as little more than a mosh pit with grenades. ANDISHEH NOURAEE clearwater highschool marching band [link|http://www.chstornadoband.org/|http://www.chstornadoband.org/]
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