Chalabi and al-Sadr ally to form anti-government party
With three months to go until Iraq's first democratic elections, established Shiite parties and powerful upstarts are feuding, prompting the leading Shiite cleric to try to pull them together to make sure that they clearly dominate the new government.
A lot of pre-election power brokering going on here. Many Shiites want to form a single large party block that could easily dominate the election. But it will be a challenge to get that many small and often contrary groups behind one banner. At the moment, there are two main alliances. One backed by Sistani, and includes the two major Shiite political parties. The other is more interesting.
The two main religious Shiite parties in the interim Iraqi government have already banded together. But they face a formidable challenge to their prominence from an unlikely and possibly anti-American alliance that is looming between Ahmad Chalabi, the former exile and Pentagon favorite, and Moktada al-Sadr, the firebrand cleric who ignited two deadly uprisings against the Americans and the interim government.
After falling out with the Americans last spring, Mr. Chalabi has recast himself as a pious Shiite and is pursuing a coalition with Mr. Sadr, who has a zealous following. An anti-American platform would have widespread support.
This could be part of some complex CIA plan to co-opt al_Sadr. But it seems far more likely to me that this is Iran having it's two allies in Iraq work together.
The Iraqi National Accord Party of Dr. Allawi, a Shiite, is expected to run in January but is at risk politically. It is a secular party with many Sunnis from the former ruling Baath Party, and so stands outside the main blocs of Iraqi politics. Support for the interim government has plummeted, and whatever political capital Dr. Allawi has left could be wiped out if he orders an invasion of Falluja. So the party might well need a strong partner to do well in the elections, but does not have one yet.
No matter what happens, Allawi's party will need a lot of help to retain a major role in the election. However, they may get a lot of such help from the US, which would greatly prefer Allawi's party retain as high a posistion of power as possible.
Jay