if he wanted to win. Sure, he said that he believed that marriage was between a man and a woman. But he didn't state it nearly as forcefully as Bush, and he was from the state that legalized gay marriage.
There were 11 states where gay marriage was on the ballot. It passed in all 11. That issue also brought out the evangelical vote in a big way.
Those states were Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Ohio, Utah and Oregon. Note Ohio - this measure guaranteed that Bush's base was going to turn out in a critical battleground state.
I firmly believe that Bush would have lost without the gay marriage issue.
Furthermore if the Democrats want to make a comeback, a very good way to do it would be to pin the "h" word on the Republicans - hypocrite. They didn't even try to do that this year. Hopefully next time they do do it.
Cheers,
Ben