Math time.
Bush leads by 130,000.
Historically 10% of provisional ballots are rejected -- 25,000 leave 225,000
Kerry needs first 130,000 to tie, then next 47,500 to keep tie.
=== Kerry needs to win 177,500 votes out of 225,000 or 78.88888888%
Likely no. Possible - slim.
Bush wins.