Decades from now, teachers of political science and campaign management will not have to look any further than the John Kerry campaign of 2004 to understand all the fundamental mistakes a candidate can make. The strategy, tactics, issues, and execution of the Kerry campaign are so flawed as to offer a model of what not to do.
Begin with Kerry\ufffds decision to focus on the war in Iraq as his key issue. In the most recent ABC News poll, voters say, 53-38, that President Bush is better than Kerry at handling the problems in Iraq. So why would the Massachusetts Democrat choose to focus his case on an area where Bush has a lead? Why not go after issues where the Democrat has an innate advantage instead? And Bush\ufffds lead on Iraq is nothing compared to his almost 40-point lead on fighting terror.
Winston Churchill once compared engaging Japan in a land war in Asia to \ufffdgoing into the water to fight the shark,\ufffd yet that is precisely what Kerry is doing by engaging Bush on his strongest suit.
Since most of Kerry\ufffds support comes from his supposed superiority on domestic issues, his base is sharply divided on the war in Iraq, with slightly more than half taking an antiwar position while about one-third back the engagement and think it is integral to the war on terror (Scott Rasmussen\ufffds data). By coming down on the left side of the issue, Kerry will drive his voters into Bush\ufffds arms.
Kerry has been maneuvered into this no-win positioning by the pressure from Bush attacking him as weak and vacillating. The windsurfing ad, devastatingly effective, forces Kerry to take strong positions just for the sake of showing he is not weak.
But he doesn\ufffdt have to take the wrong ones! He could use domestic policy to show his strength. By charging into the middle of the Iraq war, predicating his campaign on it, he is making an error of almost unbelievable proportions.