Who won the debate as a debate is irrelevant. It is all about who picked up votes. Bush doesn't care about winning a battle of words. He cares about projecting the image he wants, and giving people a sense that he "connected" with them. There are a lot of people who will vote for Bush based on that reaction.
Bush did that. On that level Kerry did reasonably well, but did not challenge the perception that Bush projected.
Cheers,
Ben