Light is slow. Universe is big. Catastrophes happen.

Post #173,914 by Another Scott 9/13/04 11:17:08 AM Reply	Light is slow. Universe is big. Catastrophes happen. I haven't done the calculations recently, but I don't think it's surprising that we haven't found evidence of other civilizations yet. On Earth, we've only had radio for ~ 100 years. We've only sent things out of our gravity well in the last 50 years. That's a tiny, tiny period of time in the greater scheme of things. Consider what's happened on Earth in the last 2000 years (another blink of an eye): Rome reached its peak and fell. Western civilization was in the doldrums for ~ 1000 years and only climbed back to where Rome was by ~ 1300 - 1400. We've had 2 horrific wars, and come close to destruction of civilization a couple of times. It's a very slow process for civilization to advance. Destruction is far too easy to guarantee long-term monotonic increases in the capabilities of a civilization. And that says nothing about events out of any civilization's control (disease, planetary impacts of various kinds, giant methane releases, etc., etc.). There probably are or have been other civilizations out there (I refuse to believe that we're unique), but they're so very far away that we may never find evidence for their existance. Then there's the issue of the economics of it: Why would an advanced civilization spend the huge amounts of resources it would take to spread out (and find that needle in a haystack that has life) and make itself known? It's certainly very hard to justify here on Earth. My $0.02. Cheers, Scott.
Post #173,919 by ben_tilly 9/13/04 11:32:41 AM Reply	Not if you believe Von Neumann As he demonstrated decades ago, the automated colonization of a galaxy is doable in a few million years, at a profit. That is, if you're capable as a species of planning on a horizon of a few centuries. Capital markets have proven capable of pricing certain securities that do not pay back for a century. So we may prove capable of it. If that fails, and we last, some generation we just may have the hubris to do it anyways. Eventually sending machines to the next star will get cheap enough for a single wealthy individual to finance it. Cheers, Ben To deny the indirect purchaser, who in this case is the ultimate purchaser, the right to seek relief from unlawful conduct, would essentially remove the word consumer from the Consumer Protection Act - [link\|http://www.techworld.com/opsys/news/index.cfm?NewsID=1246&Page=1&pagePos=20\|Nebraska Supreme Court]
Post #173,922 by Andrew Grygus 9/13/04 11:44:18 AM Reply	Looking for radio signals is probably futile. Our own broadcast radiation has begun to decline as more efficient technologies are adopted. You really only need broadcast until your infrastructure is built out - which may take well under 200 years, so our planet may soon fall silent as well. Further, there are modulation techniques which we've started using here where the signal can't be told from noise unless you are tuned to the proper reference signal, which may also look like noise and be undetectable unless you know where it is. Deliberately sending clear contact signals makes no sense (aside from the expense). Suppose they attract a more technically advanced species with faster than light travel but highly paranoid and bent on destruction of any intelligence other than their own? It's the height of stupidity to project human (or Earth) logic on any unknown interstellar intelligence. [link\|http://www.aaxnet.com\|AAx]

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