It could
There is a chance that this will backfire if they try to hammer it to hard. The Bush AWOL story is as confirmed as it can get short of Bush admitting to it. Every time a Bush backer attacks Kerry's military history, they also bring Bush's military history into play.
Rove is really good at this sort of thing though. He knows that he can't play this up too much, nor would it be a good idea to hammer it too close to the election. Notice how careful Rove has been to do this second hand. Bush's campaign can not be directly tied to the ads, but I have no doubt that Rove had a hand in their creation.
Jay
