What's old is new again.
October 6, 1973
The Yom Kippur War breaks out in the Middle East. October 17, 1973, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries declares an oil embargo, sparking the first "energy crisis."
November 7, 1973
President Nixon launches Project Independence, with the goal of achieving energy self-sufficiency by 1980. Recalling the Manhattan Project, Nixon declares that American science, technology, and industry can free the United States from dependence on foreign oil.
Kerry's energy plan concludes with:
Given that sixty-five percent of the world\ufffds oil reserves are in the Middle East, America will never be able to drill our way to energy independence. But if we have the will and the imagination to declare our commitment to energy independence today, we can achieve it tomorrow. We can create jobs and build a stronger country. We can once again make America the energy and transportation capital of the world, and make America the world\ufffds best steward of the environment we all share.
(Emphasis added.)
US oil production is dropping, and even with drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska\ufffds National Petroleum Reserve (which he supports instead of ANWAR), it's not likely that these reserves will make up for declines elsewhere. He recognizes this, yet I think he also recognizes that his other proposals will not make us "An Energy Independent America" (as he titles that chapter of his plan). It's not a matter of will, it's a matter of deciding as a matter of US policy that we're willing to invest the hundreds of billions of dollars that would be required to achieve his stated goal:
We believe a strong America must no longer rely on the cooperation of regimes that may not share our values, and we are not willing to risk a future in which our young men and women might have to risk their lives to protect Mideast oil supplies.
He's not making serious proposals to do that.
The US could probably acheive his stated goal (being independent of ME oil) in 20 years, but not by the method he suggests. I think it would take:
1) A massive investment in nuclear fission power to generate enough electricity to liberate hydrogen from water and power the plants to compress and liquify it. Hydro, solar, and wind won't be able to supply the power needed to move to a hydrogen economy for transportation, I don't think (the power density isn't there). (Biomass, etc., is pure pandering to the farmers and ADM, IMO.)
2) Substantial increases in taxes on cars and trucks (e.g. a carbon tax) to encourage people and businesses to reduce their oil consumption. Substantial investment in oil-free polymers to replace the various types of plastics we are so dependent upon.
3) Substantial investment in construction of increased natural gas or hydrogen pipelines to deliver the fuel to tank farms that would supply service stations, etc.
4) Lots of jawboning of other industrial countries to convert their manufacturing processes to reduce their oil needs. (If China is still dependent on oil, and they supply critical equipment that the US needs, then the US mainland being independent of ME oil doesn't mean the US economy is protected. As the world gets more interconnected, the problem will get more difficult.)
Etc.
It's just pablum from Kerry, IMO. If he proposes substantial tax increases necessary to make his plan a reality, then I'll think he's serious.
Note that I don't think Bush is serious about these issues either....
Cheers,
Scott.
