- so that space is being differentiated for different treatment. Note the "Home Edition" and "Professional Edition" titles now in use, and the fact that 500+ employee corps are no longer allowed to use OEM licenses. This will migrate downward as "volume licensing" did until it reaches 5 employees - so business isn't going to be allowed OEM preloads anyway.
Microsoft is gradually making the "Home" license distasteful to business (restricted networking, multimedia toys) and the "Professional" license distasteful to home users (price, availability).
The consumer space is locked up totally. Consumers will not go to alternatives no matter what, so Microsoft is free to abuse them to the full extent of the law (and beyond) without losing measurable market. They're working on deals with the RIAA/MPAA to make Windows the only distribution channel for copyrighted content.
The consumer space will boil down to a death match between Microsoft and Sony. None other need apply. The RIAA/MPAA will make sure both stay in the picture so they don't get "single sourced".
Linux? Hell no - Kids control the home space and kids are entirely herd animals. Today's kids resent even having to install games - they want plug and go. The most popular games, instant messaging and the most popular music fills out their desires. Microsoft's objective is to see that their parents pay dearly for all three. Linux hasn't a chance in hell except as an embedded OS in game machines and the like.
Sure, a few kids will run Linux, every generation has its social outcasts, but that's not a significant market.
In the business market Microsoft will leverage their Office monopoly and .NET to the full extent of the law (and beyond). They will lose some market share, especially as PCs give way to specialized devices, but their "trump card", freedom from choice, is so attractive to business managers it will hold most of the business market.
PHBs in most companies will sign off on just about any budget busting expense for the privelage of uttering those magic words, "We really don't have a choice here". This will not change until these companies are destroyed by the few competitors willing to use alternatives. They will remain faithful to Microsoft to the very end.