[link|http://newstandardnews.net/content/?action=show_item&itemid=605|NewStandardNews]

Just six days before Iraq\ufffds interim government is to gain partial sovereignty from the US, resistance fighters launched a series of coordinated attacks against US forces and Iraqi government targets in Baghdad, Mosul, Ramadi and Baqouba today. Fierce fighting between the Iraqi resistance and US forces has killed at least 85 people and wounded 320, according to the Iraqi Ministry of Health.

Seems to center in Boqouba this time. What I find amusing is that this action is the first one that hasn't been widely blamed on al-Quada terrorists, and is the first one where those in the uprising claim loyalty to al-Quada. Or rather, Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, who may not actually be a member of al-Quada but is associated with them.

The next few days will be critical. If the US can't provide any semblance of order during the handover, things are much more likely to get worse afterwards. On the other hand, even if the government is a puppet, if they can provide order and stability they are liable to be accepted by Iraqis.

Jay

Most of what you mention could happen after the US election, but Bush will not let things 'fail' before then. Until the election, Bush will dump whatever forces are needed into Iraq to provide a semblance of stability.

In fact the most likely course to end up with Iraq divided is if Kerry wins and caves to the radical lefts demands for immediate pull out. If that happens the UN will flee also and the country will either collapse in short order or a new dictator will seize power.

If Bush does win the next election, I expect to see a semblance of a country. But it is liable to be chaotic and violent and the US largly confined to military zones. However, Bush could wash his hands of Iraq if he wins the next election and decides that North Korea is the next target.

Jay