Post #160,478
6/19/04 12:45:54 AM
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You don't think he'd be able to keep it, do you?
Remember the [link|http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/carter/timeline/timeline2.html|Carter Doctrine]? January 23 [1980]: The president announces the "Carter Doctrine" in his State of the Union message. Any Soviet military intervention in the Middle East will be treated as a direct threat to U.S. national security. It was announced less than a month after the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. AFAIK, it's still the US policy that we will defend Saudi Arabia. Yes, bin Laden wants the House of Saud to be overthrown. They may lose power, but he won't succeed even without US intervention. The entire modern world's economy depends on oil. The US, Japan, and South Korea are SA's main customers for their ~ 8 Mbbl/day oil exports ([link|http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/sa.html|CIA Factbook on SA] ): Exports - partners:\tUS 18.9%, Japan 15.9%, South Korea 10.3%, Singapore 5.2%, China 4.7% (2002). I'm sure that if things get bad enough, the Saudis would request assistance from a multitude of governments, and the UN, and they would get it. And of course, the US won't allow bin Laden or al Qaeda to control the Saudi oil any more than we would have allowed the Soviets to do so. Al Qaeda [link|http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/ladin.htm|wants]: to "unite all Muslims and to establish a government which follows the rule of the Caliphs." Bin Laden has stated that the only way to establish the Caliphate is by force. Al-Qa'ida's goal, therefore, is to overthrow nearly all Muslim governments, which are viewed as corrupt, to drive Western influence from those countries, and eventually to abolish state boundaries. Bin Laden won't get that either. It seems Box believes that [link|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=140704|Iran] has designs on Mecca. Iran is non-Arab and Shia. Since the [link|http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shi%27a_Islam|Shia] are a ~15% minority in Islam, and since the [link|http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabism|Wahhabis] are a Sunni sect, and since there's historical animosity between them, one could imagine a bloody conflict. Perhaps Box can elaborate on why he views a conflict like this as being at least plausible. My $0.02. Cheers, Scott.
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Post #160,519
6/19/04 9:54:22 AM
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Could anyone?
One thing I think you have to give the Bolsheviks is that they seemed to be able to keep lunatics (Slavs for example) from killing each other.
As enlightened people, we all condemn how they did it, but they did manage to keep peace in regions we have struggled mightily with.
Maybe we should reconstitute the Bolsheviks, re-arm the Red Army and let them rule the region. Where is Stalin when you need him? </sarcasm - but is there another option?>
bcnu,
Mikem
If you can read this, you are not the President.
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Post #160,548
6/19/04 4:53:25 PM
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Simpler
Saddam is pardoned, in time for next election (I mean - in Iraq; not here. We might not have many more, anyway.)
His Platform -?- [need you ask]
Law'n Order
Works here.
Long-term strategy, you ask?
Russ + Saddam 'keep order' in dishevelled ex-Saudi Arabia
Mecca gets its first McDonalds; Russo-Iraqi Oil Co. accepts US contracts - first year Introductory Offer: $10/bbl, then \ufffd l\ufffd CC Companies .. it goes UP, depending on our behaviour. [Hummer sales thrive]
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Post #160,556
6/19/04 6:51:31 PM
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The holiest sites in Islam are Mecca and Medina
now since the Shia belief is that their sect is correct because Hussein son of Mohamed had the true faith. Sunni's believe otherwise but Wahabi'ism is as close to Islam as the Aryan Nation is to Christianity. SInce however they are a monied set and helped the Saudi Royals take and hold the place their are eagerly exporting their view to as many parts of the muslim world as possible. The Shia are a minority of Muslims but a Majority of Persians and Assyrians as opposed to Arab. The view Mecca and Medina as part if the Caliphate of Persia. In that region they do outnumber by a small margin the Sunni's. With Iraq's holy place back under their control they will be eager to visit Mecca and Medina, but the Saudi's dont teat them very well. With Iraq gone Saudi is semi encircled by a shia majority. Wouldnt take much to set it off. Then the Saudi people will feel the pain that was inflicted by Saudis on America. Revenge is a dish best eaten cold.
thanx,
bill
Anchorage AK: House for sale 3 bed 1 bath 1440 sq feet huge lot near Cheney Lake 175K FSBO 813.273.3518
I wondered what Darwinian moment had to effect itself before we devolved from children flying paper flags in the sky to half formed creatures thundering in a wall of horns down the road to Roncevaux. James Lee Burke
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]
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Post #160,558
6/19/04 7:50:27 PM
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Comments.. via some meeja source, a while back
(~) All these forces have been fermenting, held in abeyance for a time in say, Afghanistan by Russ "nation [hah] building". And Iraq via Saddam's methods (as might inflame most folks sittin around a nice safe table somewhere) but his Repression kept the clan squabbles from creating chaos. Truly a LawnOrder kinda guy - so dear to many [in positions of Authority] on W. side of the Atlantic, too. Hell, we Put Him There. cha
The observer quipped ~ that, "eventually, over some years [?] these feuds Would be hashed out in the style of the various simmering 'victims' of 500 or 1000 years of 'betrayals'" yada yada [He was smart enought to have offered No Predictions about *that process*][/~]
So then.. Shrub, with the PNAC Neocons feedin his toddler's huge attraction to simplistic fantasy, like a Fois gras Goose!
- no more so than in the vision of US-flag-waving Iraqis - -
[supplied by Haliburton at Cost+ - each $80K truck with a flat-tire bein torched so they could get a new one]
- JohnWaynes US into this chasm, accelerating the simmering into a magnesium flare; or.. pouring water into concentrated H2SO4 "from a great height"?
In this instance, it looks as if that usage of H2SO4 builds you a Tar Baby out of the charred (carbon units) bodies.
(I don't recall Uncle Remus bein very specific about how the folks got their paws OFF that there prototype..)
Thanks! Shrub, Cheney, Roveowitz and the masses o' marlowes, Grammas a clackin an a fulminatin in the background, masturbatin over toy RC airplanes.. along with the 90%-Shrubophile er 'Evangels':
Yer chilluns will be payin for this shit in closed schools and every other Econ way - for a generation or two. We ain't seen Nuttin, yet. Like.. when it's found how much easier it is to destroy oil refineries, electric grids ... than build 'em. And the US/Euro, seein UAV owners everywhere in rags / torn Armanis
Remember the Nukes.
Only in Monty Python..
was the Village Idiot actually an urbane, witty competent kinda guy who Knew he was only actin, fillin a town function that always needs fillin.
In Real Liff - -
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Post #160,589
6/19/04 10:22:30 PM
6/20/04 6:44:41 PM
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Mecca and Medina were always Arab, never Persian caliphate
Bahgdad in Iraq was the central point (politically) between the two (Arab & Persian).
Shia were formed because they were the followers of the 4th Caliph 'Imam Ali' (Mohomad's son-in-law & at same time his cousin). Hassan was Ali's oldest son, who under threat abdicated Caliphate seccession in favour of the 5th Caliph (Ummayad clan) after Ali was murdered. Ali's second son Hussayn was also murdered by the 'Sunni' - the followers of the 'loosely' elected 5th Imam 1st of the Ummayad clan. With both Ali and Hussayn having been murdered, they became 'saints' to the Shia (party of Ali). Shia regard Ali as the 1st Caliph and the true heir to Mohomad. There is a debate that still gets argued over today as to if Mohomad always intended Ali to take over directly from him. That of course didn't happen. Three other Caliphs were 'elected' before Ali got his go & Caliphs 2,3 & 4 (Ali) were all murdered as was Ali's 2nd son.
The split is not unlike that in the Mormon religion founded by the 'prophet' Joseph Smith. When Smith was lynched, the followers of Brigham Young (the equiv of the Ummayads) split (physically & figuratively) with the followers of Joseph Smith's son and trekked to Utah from Missouri.
The Mormons became two factions: Brigham Young's "Church of Jesus Christ of Latter day Saints" and the Smith son followers "Reorganised Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints". The latter stayed in the town they founded - Independance Missouri, & fought a court battle to retain the property etc: of The original church but Brigham Young's group became the Mormon powerhouse we all think of today as the 'Mormons'.
The split between the Sunni and Shia was very much (but not totally) a Persian vs Arab split with the Shia being predominantly of Persian origin. The Ummayads dominated the caliphate for many years before being overthrown by the Abbasaid dynasty (Interestingly, it was one of the survivors of the Ummayads who fled to Spain & founded the Andalusian empire there).
Both the Ummayads & Abbasaids were harsh to the Shia. The Sunnis believed in an 'administrative' and Arab dominated Islam where the Caliphs were administrators as well as heads of the religion whereas the Shia believed in a religious (spiritual) leadership with less vaue on who administered (Sunnis followed power leaders, Shia followed the descendants of Mohomad through Ali).
The Sunni/Shia split is actually very complex but in simple terms, it is as above.
Doug Marker
#2 correct sp of word Caliphate in title
#3 corrected ref to Hussayn being Ali's 1st son (he was his 2nd)
_________________________________________________________
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!".
-- Leonardo Da Vinci
Edited by dmarker
June 20, 2004, 02:46:52 AM EDT
Edited by dmarker
June 20, 2004, 06:44:41 PM EDT
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Post #160,595
6/19/04 10:46:42 PM
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beg to disagree
the byzantine empire was overrun by preasure from the east not south, Arabs dominated the Saudi peninsula but only after the ottoman empire was power shifted from non arab to arab.
thanx.
bill
Anchorage AK: House for sale 3 bed 1 bath 1440 sq feet huge lot near Cheney Lake 175K FSBO 813.273.3518
I wondered what Darwinian moment had to effect itself before we devolved from children flying paper flags in the sky to half formed creatures thundering in a wall of horns down the road to Roncevaux. James Lee Burke
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]
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Post #160,604
6/20/04 2:45:11 AM
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Not sure what point you disagree with :-)
_________________________________________________________
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!".
-- Leonardo Da Vinci
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Post #160,616
6/20/04 10:25:07 AM
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ottoman empire, holder of the caliphate for a thousand years
were not arab.
thanx,
bill
Anchorage AK: House for sale 3 bed 1 bath 1440 sq feet huge lot near Cheney Lake 175K FSBO 813.273.3518
I wondered what Darwinian moment had to effect itself before we devolved from children flying paper flags in the sky to half formed creatures thundering in a wall of horns down the road to Roncevaux. James Lee Burke
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]
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Post #160,652
6/20/04 5:02:17 PM
6/21/04 8:40:24 AM
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A new Ottoman history ? - check your dates - 600 years out
Persian empire ended in 680 when Arab Islam invaded.
Ottoman empire was founded in early 1300s and grew through that century. Constantinople fell in 1453. That lead Ottoman expansion into Iraq & today's Iran.
Sunni & Shia sects were well in existance by end 600s (Ali's 2nd son Hussayn's martyrdom at Karbala (now in Iraq)).
There is a 600 year gap in what we are talking about. Also this has little to do with the inital posts re a Persian Caliphate (there *never* was a Persian Caliphate - the cities of the Caliphates from 700ad to 1500ad were first Damascus, then the newly founded city of Baghdad then Cairo until 1517ad, but even under the Ottomans it remained officially in Cairo) ?
Cheers Doug
#2 found a very good link (thanks for giving me the incentive) this is a very good summary of the overall Caliphate & points out that the Ottoman leader Selim I assumed the mantle of Caliph in 1517 after defeating the remanants of the Abbasaids in Egypt that year. The Ottomans held the Caliphate until 1924 so that provides for a 400 year Caliphate after a 800+ year Arab Caliphate (certainly *not* a 1000 year Ottoman tenure). The Selim I link = [link|http://www.infoplease.com/ce6/history/A0809901.html|http://www.infopleas...ory/A0809901.html] (I am guessing you have inadvertantly mixed the Arab 800 year tenure with the later 400 year Ottoman tenure - easy enough mistake - this whole issue is extraordinarily complex - I won't even go into the line of 12 Imams of the Shia & the significance ot 'the 12th Imam' but it is rather fascinating).
#3 qualified founding of the Ottoman empire.
#4 corrected duration of Ottoman Caliphate (said 500 years but it was only 400) also clarified a few other typos & points.
#5 reversed the order of Baghdad & Damascus.
Below are a few quick links (can get more detailed stuff on Shia & Sunni)
[link|http://www.admin.northpark.edu/dkoeller/Classes/WHII/3MuslimEmpires.N.html|http://www.admin.nor...limEmpires.N.html] 3 empires
Explains Ottoman Empire well - 500 years after Sunni & Shia branches of Islam founded
[link|http://www.infoplease.com/ce6/history/A0860176.html|http://www.infopleas...ory/A0860176.html]
Explains Ottoman empire as 1400s
[link|http://www.wsu.edu:8080/~dee/OTTOMAN/OTTOMAN1.HTM|http://www.wsu.edu:8...OMAN/OTTOMAN1.HTM]
Suleyman the magnificent (pinnacle of Ottoman achievements)
[link|http://campus.northpark.edu/history/WebChron/MiddleEast/Ottoman.html|http://campus.northp...East/Ottoman.html]
Another history - Ottomans - Constantinole
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Persia in 7th century becomes Islamic after being crushed by the Arabs
[link|http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_761564512/Persia.html|http://encarta.msn.c...64512/Persia.html] (at bottom)
[link|http://gbgm-umc.org/country_profiles/country_history.cfm?Id=202|http://gbgm-umc.org/...istory.cfm?Id=202]
Mentions collapse of the Persian empire (at bottom)
[link|http://www.cyberistan.org/islamic/islmoil1.html|http://www.cyberista...mic/islmoil1.html]
Arabs and oil in the 7th century (good story)
_________________________________________________________
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!".
-- Leonardo Da Vinci
Edited by dmarker
June 20, 2004, 05:03:15 PM EDT
Edited by dmarker
June 20, 2004, 06:17:49 PM EDT
Edited by dmarker
June 20, 2004, 06:20:52 PM EDT
Edited by dmarker
June 20, 2004, 11:20:04 PM EDT
Edited by dmarker
June 21, 2004, 08:40:24 AM EDT
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