[link|http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm|http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm]
Bush 46, Kerry 53
Bush 48, Edwards 49 (!)
Bush 50, Clark 47 (for a total political beginner)
Bush 52, Dean 45 (Dean killing by media has worked)
Even in the purportedly biased Newsweek poll Bush loses to Kerry 46/48 with 6 undecided.
In 45 days, Bush's approval rating has dropped from 63 to 49, while disapproval has risen from 34 to 48.
I wish I could find historical poll data from this same time period, for say Bush v. Clinton after Gulf 1.