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New Re: What you're missing....
Derivatives are extremely valuable instruments, which is why there is so much effort dedicated to creating and trading with them. What they let you do is hedge against risks that previously could not be hedged against, and this in turn allows people to try things that were too risky to contemplate doing before the derivatives existed. I spent half a decade working at a company that was trying to roll out a new derivative product. The idea was that home loans usually represented the single largest source of financial risk to a given family. If you could buy insurance against sudden declines in the market, then you would not have to worry about potentially getting "trapped" in a bad job or bad neighborhood because of an unanticipated drop in property values. That's a new liberating potential made possible by a very sophisticated piece of financial design.

Sure, derivatives can be misused, but that's true of everything: the human capacity for fraud, self-delusion and stupidity long predates the Black-Scholes equation.
New Yes, derivatives have positives and negatives
However my concern is that financial markets tend to concentrate risks with those who are most willing to take risks. More sophisticated instruments allow those risk-takers to get farther out on a limb at far higher leverage. And yes, I know the requirement for any company who is issuing massive derivatives to maintain quality credit ratings. But the move that I am talking about can happen in ways that traditional quality ratings find hard to measure, and the shift to a very risky exposure is very hard to monitor until things blow up.

The result is that risks are borne by people who can't handle them when they blow up. So parts of the system that thought they were guaranteed to not take the risk, get hit. Or (like Long-Term Capital) the amounts at stake become so large that they simple Are Not Allowed To Fail, and the government steps in. (And, of course, when risk-takers take risks on the bet that government will rescue their sorry asses, bigger and better risks get cheerfully taken.)

This is, of course, not even taking into account the opportunities for outright fraud that you get when scammers (to use the cliched example, eg at Enron) use the complexity you can get with custom derivative instruments to keep people from understanding the house of cards they are erecting.

So yes, if derivatives were used properly, I understand all of the theory for why they should be good things. However I still am not convinced that on balance the more obscure ones are a good thing.

Cheers,
Ben
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
     Wealth & Democracy - Paging Ben Tilly. - (inthane-chan) - (14)
         Re: Wealth & Democracy - Paging Ben Tilly. - (deSitter) - (10)
             Re: Wealth & Democracy - Paging Ben Tilly. - (neelk) - (9)
                 Not silly at all - (drewk) - (5)
                     If everyone is a farmer, you do not have a viable economy - (Arkadiy) - (4)
                         True, but they can all eat -NT - (drewk) - (3)
                             Um, how? - (Another Scott) - (1)
                                 Who said it had to look like the current one? - (drewk)
                             Nope, the brain is otherwise occupied, I guess - (Arkadiy)
                 What you're missing.... - (bepatient) - (2)
                     Re: What you're missing.... - (neelk) - (1)
                         Yes, derivatives have positives and negatives - (ben_tilly)
         Your analogy is pretty good - (ben_tilly) - (1)
             Thanks, both of you. - (inthane-chan)
         analogy of todays economic climate - (boxley)

I killed quite a few of my test rabbits when I first learned it.
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