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New If Osama bin Laden has sneaked out of Afghanistan ...
... where are the most likely places he would go?

With all his terrorist connections he could be almost anywhere.

(or am I the only one thinking about this scenario?)

New Re: According to one expert, he may well be in Pakistan

This person fought with the Mujahedeen & maks a strong case for Bin Laden to actually be in Pakistan well hidden from authority.

But by now he could be anywhere.

Cheers

Doug
New Depends
I really depends on how much he wants to control his network. If he wants to keep day to day control then there really are not that many places he could go.

Maintaing active control of his network would take to much communications for him to hide for long outside a predominatly Arab country. Also, it would have to be a country with poor border control, since many of the people he would want to see in person can not travel freely.

The obvious choice would be Somolia, there is no central government and he has many friends there. However, we already picked up on that possibility and the area must be heavily monitered.

India might work, simply because the country is so big. He should be able to find some out of the way area that is exclusivly Muslim.

Egypt would be nice in some ways, since it has better travel and communication access then other countries. But the government is already watching Muslim fanatics closely and Isreal has agents on the ground there. Actually, I think any country next to Isreal is probably out of the question for that very reason.

Iran is hard to call. It would have the advantage of shielding him from almost all outside scrutiny, but would make communication almost impossible. In any case it does not appear that the government of Iran like the version of Islam pushed by the Taliban, making such an alliance unlikely.

Iraq is a strong possiblity. Communications in and out would be very difficult, but he would be in little risk of being spotted. The government seems freindly to him, and is probably the only one that might activly protect him against the US. The strong down side is that we would have no qualms about a land invasion to get him out of Iraq, even if we didn't have 100% proof many would support a land assult there.

The only posibility that worries me is that he might head for Saudi Arabia. The government doesn't like him, but he has to have many contacts inside the country and probably has some in the government. The wealth of Saudia Arabia could be used to help cover many of his activities, people could be brought in on private jets without to much notice and so on.

The problem is Saudi Arabia is that if he is hiding there and we find out, what do we do? They are our ally after all, we can't bomb or attack them the way we might somebody else. At the same time the Saudi government is liable to have trouble finding and arresting him in a country where much of the population supports him.

Of course that all depends on him wanting to keep control of his network. If he is willing to hide and just make the occasional pronoucement against the US he could be just about anyplace. One of the Muslim Asian countries would probably be the best.

Jay
New So we don't know where he is but the Taliban wants ...
... to hold a trial against him using Coalition evidence.
(as just reported on CNN about 5 minutes ago)

Any chance bin Laden would receive an un-biased decision by the Taliban (whom he helped rise to power)?

Nah. Not likely. I'm surprised they'd even suggest such an offer. They don't trust the U.S. to give him a fair trial. Why should we trust them, especially after all the Jihads they've declared against us since September 11th?

In regards to evidence, here is a piece. If the Taliban really want evidence they ought to look at the terrorist training camps in their back yard. That might be a red flag, perhaps?

[link|http://www.cbsnews.com/now/story/0,1597,311414-412,00.shtml|
Magazine Links Hijackers, Bin Laden]
* Der Spiegel: Hijackers Met Bin Laden Aide, And A Video Exists
* U.S. Intelligence Officials: More Attacks Like Sept. 11 A Possibility
* Bin Laden's Network Utilized The Web To Mask Their Trail

Oct. 5, 2001

(CBS) The FBI has linked two hijackers of the plane that crashed into the Pentagon last month to an associate of Osama bin Laden, a magazine reported on Saturday.

Der Spiegel, a German news weekly, said Khalid Almihdhar and Nawaf Alhazmi, both passengers on American Airlines Flight 77, met in January with a man said to be bin Laden's chief bodyguard. A video of the talks exists, the magazine reported.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair published a document on October 4 saying there was conclusive proof linking bin Laden and his al Qaeda network to last month's attacks.
Expand Edited by brettj Oct. 7, 2001, 09:18:38 AM EDT
New Not intended for us
Those offers are not intended for us, they are to make the Taliban look good in the eyes of Muslims.

To have any chance of survival, the Taliban needs the support of moderate Muslims in other countries.

Jay
New Yep. You are right.
bin Laden has turned this into an information war (read: propoganda).

I almost forgot until you reminded me.

He and his extremists hoped to rally anti-American sentiment by starting a Holy War, thereby uniting people of Islamic faith everywhere.

It hasn't turned out as they planned. The U.S.-led coalition has fought their evil with wisdom, compassion, patience and determination. Al Queda and the other terrorist networks didn't plan on such a reaction. They thought we'd sink to their level of hatred. They thought wrong and now they shall find out what justice is. Allah does not support such murder and extortion in his name. The world is against them.
New Re: If Osama bin Laden has sneaked out of Afghanistan ...
Personally, I think the boy is stuck either in Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Kashmir. My reasoning is that anywhere else, he'd stick out like a sore thumb and the U.S. government wouldn't think it a big problem to go in with a crack team and blow big gaping holes in him. I think he'd be safest in Kashmir because India doesn't really control it, there are lines of communication to Pakistan, and Afghanistan is going to be too hot for his whiny self.

I don't think he needs or wants direct control over his organization. That would leave it open to being dismantled easily once he goes. I think, rather, he is, as the State dept. pegged it, a facilitator. In a sense, he's already succeeded because he's had 10 years to train others which in turn will train others. If he did no more than commit suicide right now, his whole organization would still be in place and just as implacable an enemy.

If we really want to hurt him out, we need to make friends with Muslims. I don't mind blowing the heads off the radicals, but that isn't going to make life miserable for them, only give them what they want. If Muslims see that their future is tied to religious manipulators like bin Laden, then we've lost the fight. If, however, Muslims are able to see bin Laden as just another political carpetbagger dressing himself in Islam, then their rejection of him and his merry band of killers is the worst possible injury that could be inflicted on him.

That being said, I have little hope the Muslims will ever be friends of the West. We sometimes do stupid things like the BBC's report of Geri Halliwell (sp?) entertaining the British troops in Oman dressed in a bikini. Did the dumbass Brits really need to tweak the Muslim conservatives' noses just now?
Gerard Allwein
New We display so many symbols; surprising we remain so inept
in comprehending, manipulating others' symbols.

Were Billy n'Bally to mysteriously 'disappear' - er, on say, the anniversary of the Hallowe'en Documents ? - would the daily mini-agony of dealing with Windoze subversion of such concepts as "stability, affordability, ease-of-maintenance" disappear?

Were Foulwell, Robertson and a few Tee Vee brethren, to get 'raptured out' of the morass - er, in some appropriately sanctimonious way - would Fundamentalism in Murica be altered in any umm fundamental way?

I suppose we'd better hope that none of the smart bombs are WinCE-smart. That would help, but I can't think of many ways to de-fuze the popular overview held by every 3rd-world dirt-poor non-Xian group worldwide that, no matter what we say, nor how apparently 'surgically' we 'bomb':

A) It's about $ (oil) and international hegemony of the Murican-Christian-rich VS not-Murican non-Christian impoverished. The "5% controlling the half (\ufffd) of world's wealth" factoid - may prove a hard fact to spin.

B) We are the progenitors of spin, which permeates our daily lives - has extended beyond the ceaseless hawking of merchandise and on into the basis for every political utterance we make, at home or abroad. ie Clearly our Largest Valuez are, like our largest preoccupations: indistinguishable from commerce / the $ / ie Power.

Our concept of Freedom, and our reasons Why we must act in support of our definitions: is hardly compelling to the millions (billions?) who bloody well notice they are unFree - and do not 'feel' it is because they have behaved 'wrongly' in daily lives.

Should we point out that - the perpetuation of oppressive local regimes is a failure of these folk to organize, employ tactics to oust their own local oppressors (??) Will that argument not be answered by the pointing out of the numerous oppressive er "anti-Communist" local despots we have overtly supplied with terror-training in US schools, $$ and weapons? (All used *against* the aforementioned unFree - and still unFree)

It is going to be the Propaganda War to End all PWs. I have no idea how the tides shall shift, but would observe re such wars and the 'wisdom' of populations:

Windoze persists! It lives within the ids of the Murican "5%-Owners of half-OUR-wealth" -- this despite all the tables of costs, litanies of shitty performance and evidence of corrupt manipulation of the entire IT golden cow err.. calf. This despite the 'technical proof' of the Redmond h\ufffdmmorhage of locked-in $ and its endless nature.

So if We cannot overcome an analogous kind of local oppression! for all our vaunted 'freedom of information' and our self-deemed intelligence - then... what was that, about "locally overthrowing oppressive regimes" ?

{sigh}
As to making friends with Muslims.. Note that our present leaders / Executive branch - have demonstrated publicly, a Christian-orientation (locally described by US opponents as "Right-wing flavor Christianity").

In attempting to circumvent the basic Constitutional Principle\ufffd of "the separation of church and state" via such directions as, "government support of Faith-based organizations" (in lieu of effective actual support of the neediest): I don't see much here in our internal behavior - likely to be seen as other than disingenuous spin - by any thinking non-Christian in the world.

(Also - our repetitive xenophobia - currently taking the form of Arab- Semite- bashing sporadically, among Our Own Citizens! against other citizens - fuels that fire.)

So we have to ask ourselves, especially today:

IS the rest of the world any more immune to local spin than - 'we collectively' appear to be?



Ashton
     If Osama bin Laden has sneaked out of Afghanistan ... - (brettj) - (7)
         Re: According to one expert, he may well be in Pakistan - (dmarker2)
         Depends - (JayMehaffey) - (3)
             So we don't know where he is but the Taliban wants ... - (brettj) - (2)
                 Not intended for us - (JayMehaffey) - (1)
                     Yep. You are right. - (brettj)
         Re: If Osama bin Laden has sneaked out of Afghanistan ... - (gtall) - (1)
             We display so many symbols; surprising we remain so inept - (Ashton)

If you're going to have your life destroyed by a brutal economic recession, at least you shouldn't also have to use Windows XP.
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