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New Second Stream
The revolution in computing with "Services" is in the second stream.

Companies want computers that can qualify loans. Decide what kind of a risk you are, and what the macroeconomic conditions are. Decide who is a threat, and who is OK. This kind of "profiling" will just proliferate.
The next 5 years are about getting rid of managers who used to make these decisions, and getting computers to do them. And order stuff, and schedule people and equipment, and machine time, and hospital beds.

The banking and mortgage industries are way ahead. Other industries are catching up quickly.

In 25 years, the economy bus will have already crashed, you won't be able to get off. In 25 years, computers will largely decide "if you qualify", "if you are someone".

I want to get off, too. But, I'd like to get off now. Or at least in 10 years. But, that's my problem. I just refinanced a 30 year mortgage, with the hope that I can somehow get it finished in 15 or even 10. I won't retire until 2032, but I'm being told that my best earning years are behind me at age 39.

You need to get your money and put it away in the next 10 years. Pay off debt, don't buy so much more stuff.

Hold off on buying electronics as long as possible as the prices for that will fall, as Moore's Law continues to work. But, beyond technology products, the quality will just get worse, as the work is exported. Furniture, refrigerators, washer/dryer, carpet, homes, etc. Buy the best quality of those that you can afford.

A large portion of the baby boomers retire in 10 to 15 years. Consumption HAS to fall in the U.S., as these people need to save for whatever retirement they'll have. Social security (and possibly the whole U.S. gov't) will be broke in 15-20 years. Exports have to RISE to save our economy. We have to produce and convince other countries to buy.

I don't know how that really happens. The dollar may have to fall very dramatically. We have to convince others to buy U.S. goods vis a vis foreign goods.

My father proposed that we enact laws "requiring" a balance of trade. In other words, if China imports 10 billion in goods to us, then we must export 10 billion in goods to them. If Japan wants to sell 100 billion here, they must buy 100 billion from us. The idea is to not let the balance of trade go so far askew that we net export billions out of our economy, like we do now.

I don't know what the answer is. I just know it has to change.

Glen
Expand Edited by gdaustin Sept. 20, 2003, 11:13:05 AM EDT
New Heh.. Not the bus I was thinking of
I take your point about the economics. Given employment at my current rate, I should be completely debt free in 4 to 5 years, house, cottage, cars, the works. My wife and I have been saving for our 'golden years' for some time now, so we're doing ok in that respect.

I am more concerned with society crashing in a huge way then a mere economic melt-down. I've been broke before and was, in many respects, a lot happier than when I was bucks up and working too hard to enjoy it.

In 25 years I will be pushing 80, or daisies. If not daisies, I think I would probably rather quit at that point while it is still my choise. For the last few years my wife and I have been taking care of her folks and dealing with cancer, death, broken bones, dementia and such. If it comes my turn, I don't think I want to play. That was the getting off the bus reference.

Cheers,
Hugh
     Another take on the Man | Machine question - (Ashton) - (44)
         The Rise of the machines - (orion)
         This is probably a natural evolution. - (mmoffitt) - (1)
             One doomed to failure - (orion)
         The absurd Progamme of Communist Party of Soviet Union - (Arkadiy) - (17)
             Different goals. - (inthane-chan) - (16)
                 The difference is in results - (Arkadiy) - (15)
                     Except this time real advances are being made. - (inthane-chan) - (7)
                         Perfect. - (Arkadiy) - (6)
                             Not quite true. - (inthane-chan) - (5)
                                 You assume that human behaviors are simple - (Arkadiy) - (4)
                                     Children working in factories - (orion) - (1)
                                         Another example - (JayMehaffey)
                                     Next step in chain - (JayMehaffey)
                                     I view any AI wishful thinking similarly.. - (Ashton)
                     Be judicious with "never". - (mmoffitt) - (6)
                         I wonder if we'll have reverse immigration soon - (Arkadiy) - (5)
                             Now? - (mmoffitt)
                             Won't work - (orion)
                             Already here - (tuberculosis) - (2)
                                 That's different . - (Arkadiy) - (1)
                                     Americans will never do that. - (mmoffitt)
         Why automate? - (gdaustin) - (16)
             Not necessarily a low mark to reach. - (hnick) - (12)
                 It's the repetition that makes machines cost-effective. - (Another Scott) - (11)
                     Yeppers on that. - (a6l6e6x) - (5)
                         Printer assembly - (kmself) - (4)
                             Think about this for a minute.... - (gdaustin) - (3)
                                 I think that this forks into 2 different process streams - (hnick) - (2)
                                     Second Stream - (gdaustin) - (1)
                                         Heh.. Not the bus I was thinking of - (hnick)
                     But always in the narrow-trained Econ mind - - (Ashton) - (4)
                         I think you're thinking of Arundhati Roy - (Another Scott) - (1)
                             Exactly - thanks. - (Ashton)
                         The problem - (JayMehaffey) - (1)
                             In accord. - (Ashton)
             Why use third world country labor? - (orion) - (2)
                 Employees Don't Have a Choice... - (gdaustin) - (1)
                     Boomers >>> THE. G.I. BILL. <<< - (Ashton)
         Glacial change of social mores | Accelerated machines? - (Ashton)
         Player Piano - (tuberculosis)
         I've long thought something like that - (ben_tilly) - (3)
             Oh, I expect . . - (Andrew Grygus) - (2)
                 (er IF not when) Shall attend thine enthronement Oh #1-ASIC -NT - (Ashton)
                 Re: Oh, I expect . . - (kmself)

Fac ut vivas.
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