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New Think about this for a minute....
Machines are good at making the same thing over and over again with very low variation in specification. Machine lathes, auto parts, plastics, etc.

However, machines to do these things are VERY expensive, so they have to be able to mass produce a lot of parts.

Machines have a much more difficult time with tasks like assembling parts, primarily because logic has to be programmed (that humans already have) to figure out the direction and position of a bolt on a belt, for example. There are machines capable of this kind of activity, but they are even more expensive than the machines that make the same part over and over again.

I think Saturn has machines that weld and assemble cars.

The part that scares me in the near term is that fact that humans have almost completely been removed from decision-making processes, like credit.

I helped automate a major West coast bank's loan system. The system took an electronic loan application, went and collected information from about 5 different systems (prior banking history, credit scores, etc.), then sent the whole XML bundle to a company that then basically made the credit decision.

Now, imagine if the Department of Homeland Security did the same. Now, imagine that someone who didn't like you decided to report an erroneous event on you that you were a terrorist. The system would probably report your every credit card transaction, when you gassed up your car, and all your air travel. It really would be 1984.

I read an article in Wired or FastCompany or some magazine like that a few years ago about a man who was experimenting with chip implantation (in the body). My fear is that the Dept. of Homeland Security might eventually require such a thing (under the guise of reducing medical records costs), then be able to track every person in America, within a few feet.

That kind of thinking makes me want to flee to some remote part of the world, buy only in cash, and have a different name.

New I think that this forks into 2 different process streams
if that is the word.

One stream is the machine path. The first ones are expensive, but they get cheaper and more adaptable to different tasks. It is an evolutionary process (my opinion only, of course.) I don't see much that will keep them from being built, first for dangerous and unpleasant tasks, and later just because it is cheap enough and they can. A lot of good, and much more not so good Sci-fi has been written about life on the asymtotic side of the development curve.

The other stream is the human social development that goes with this. The adaption of automation seems to be faster than our society can adapt. Our society has the "work ethic" that says that everybody has to work/produce to be a valued member. As jobs disappear, more of our citizens are devalued. And this trend is accelerating as well. It is my opinion that if society does not adapt, it will fail catastrophically. The way things are going, I expect to see revolution or some sort of collapse in my lifetime, and I plan to get off the bus in another 25 years or so. In any event, we are way past any kind of a quick fix.

Yet another .02
Hugh
New Second Stream
The revolution in computing with "Services" is in the second stream.

Companies want computers that can qualify loans. Decide what kind of a risk you are, and what the macroeconomic conditions are. Decide who is a threat, and who is OK. This kind of "profiling" will just proliferate.
The next 5 years are about getting rid of managers who used to make these decisions, and getting computers to do them. And order stuff, and schedule people and equipment, and machine time, and hospital beds.

The banking and mortgage industries are way ahead. Other industries are catching up quickly.

In 25 years, the economy bus will have already crashed, you won't be able to get off. In 25 years, computers will largely decide "if you qualify", "if you are someone".

I want to get off, too. But, I'd like to get off now. Or at least in 10 years. But, that's my problem. I just refinanced a 30 year mortgage, with the hope that I can somehow get it finished in 15 or even 10. I won't retire until 2032, but I'm being told that my best earning years are behind me at age 39.

You need to get your money and put it away in the next 10 years. Pay off debt, don't buy so much more stuff.

Hold off on buying electronics as long as possible as the prices for that will fall, as Moore's Law continues to work. But, beyond technology products, the quality will just get worse, as the work is exported. Furniture, refrigerators, washer/dryer, carpet, homes, etc. Buy the best quality of those that you can afford.

A large portion of the baby boomers retire in 10 to 15 years. Consumption HAS to fall in the U.S., as these people need to save for whatever retirement they'll have. Social security (and possibly the whole U.S. gov't) will be broke in 15-20 years. Exports have to RISE to save our economy. We have to produce and convince other countries to buy.

I don't know how that really happens. The dollar may have to fall very dramatically. We have to convince others to buy U.S. goods vis a vis foreign goods.

My father proposed that we enact laws "requiring" a balance of trade. In other words, if China imports 10 billion in goods to us, then we must export 10 billion in goods to them. If Japan wants to sell 100 billion here, they must buy 100 billion from us. The idea is to not let the balance of trade go so far askew that we net export billions out of our economy, like we do now.

I don't know what the answer is. I just know it has to change.

Glen
Expand Edited by gdaustin Sept. 20, 2003, 11:13:05 AM EDT
New Heh.. Not the bus I was thinking of
I take your point about the economics. Given employment at my current rate, I should be completely debt free in 4 to 5 years, house, cottage, cars, the works. My wife and I have been saving for our 'golden years' for some time now, so we're doing ok in that respect.

I am more concerned with society crashing in a huge way then a mere economic melt-down. I've been broke before and was, in many respects, a lot happier than when I was bucks up and working too hard to enjoy it.

In 25 years I will be pushing 80, or daisies. If not daisies, I think I would probably rather quit at that point while it is still my choise. For the last few years my wife and I have been taking care of her folks and dealing with cancer, death, broken bones, dementia and such. If it comes my turn, I don't think I want to play. That was the getting off the bus reference.

Cheers,
Hugh
     Another take on the Man | Machine question - (Ashton) - (44)
         The Rise of the machines - (orion)
         This is probably a natural evolution. - (mmoffitt) - (1)
             One doomed to failure - (orion)
         The absurd Progamme of Communist Party of Soviet Union - (Arkadiy) - (17)
             Different goals. - (inthane-chan) - (16)
                 The difference is in results - (Arkadiy) - (15)
                     Except this time real advances are being made. - (inthane-chan) - (7)
                         Perfect. - (Arkadiy) - (6)
                             Not quite true. - (inthane-chan) - (5)
                                 You assume that human behaviors are simple - (Arkadiy) - (4)
                                     Children working in factories - (orion) - (1)
                                         Another example - (JayMehaffey)
                                     Next step in chain - (JayMehaffey)
                                     I view any AI wishful thinking similarly.. - (Ashton)
                     Be judicious with "never". - (mmoffitt) - (6)
                         I wonder if we'll have reverse immigration soon - (Arkadiy) - (5)
                             Now? - (mmoffitt)
                             Won't work - (orion)
                             Already here - (tuberculosis) - (2)
                                 That's different . - (Arkadiy) - (1)
                                     Americans will never do that. - (mmoffitt)
         Why automate? - (gdaustin) - (16)
             Not necessarily a low mark to reach. - (hnick) - (12)
                 It's the repetition that makes machines cost-effective. - (Another Scott) - (11)
                     Yeppers on that. - (a6l6e6x) - (5)
                         Printer assembly - (kmself) - (4)
                             Think about this for a minute.... - (gdaustin) - (3)
                                 I think that this forks into 2 different process streams - (hnick) - (2)
                                     Second Stream - (gdaustin) - (1)
                                         Heh.. Not the bus I was thinking of - (hnick)
                     But always in the narrow-trained Econ mind - - (Ashton) - (4)
                         I think you're thinking of Arundhati Roy - (Another Scott) - (1)
                             Exactly - thanks. - (Ashton)
                         The problem - (JayMehaffey) - (1)
                             In accord. - (Ashton)
             Why use third world country labor? - (orion) - (2)
                 Employees Don't Have a Choice... - (gdaustin) - (1)
                     Boomers >>> THE. G.I. BILL. <<< - (Ashton)
         Glacial change of social mores | Accelerated machines? - (Ashton)
         Player Piano - (tuberculosis)
         I've long thought something like that - (ben_tilly) - (3)
             Oh, I expect . . - (Andrew Grygus) - (2)
                 (er IF not when) Shall attend thine enthronement Oh #1-ASIC -NT - (Ashton)
                 Re: Oh, I expect . . - (kmself)

Erm, jb......that already IS a Lerpadism.
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