If the economic indicators point way up, sales are up, and it appears that profits will be made, then managers are encouraged to go ahead and add staff and spend their budgets.

However, if, as in the past 3 years (2000, 2001, 2002) the indicators (sales, profits, investments) remain flat or down, then managers will then be further encouraged to cut staff, and defer projects.

Unless things are really bad, most companies can't go more than about 4 years deferring projects and reducing staff, unless they are getting amazing gains in productivity. So, by mid-decade 2004/2005 many of these companies will need to do some upgrades. The increased maintenance cost of aging equipment alone will drive them to upgrade.

Now, some of that growth may be outsourced and overseas, but also by 2006/2007 many companies will probably be unhappy with outsourcing partners and there will be an "opportunity" for Americans to win the work back. But remember, we're still competing globally (unless, of course, we pass laws to restrict foreign competition).