I'm pretty sure Microsoft has yet to realize just how close to rebellion their "partners" and "committed customers" are, or to the extent Microsoft has come to be despised. They will probably overplay their hand.

There are a number of factors that affect "partners" and others that affect both partners and customers.

• Rapid and massive upscaling of Microsoft's corporate support operations, and placing those operations squarely between the corps and the "partners" Those who have commented "on the record" have said the move would not affect them negatively, those who have commented "off the record" have expressed an entirely different opinion.
  
  
• Interception of license renewal revenue that used to provide steady income to "partners".
  
  
• The new license registration requirements will annoy customers no end and make support much more difficult.
  
  
• Replacement of all upgrade paths with Software Assurance, which forces immediate upgrade of all products as soon as released. Any deviation from the plan and you have to buy all new retail versions to get back on Software Assurance.
  
  
• The high handed anti-piracy campaign, with huge fines and penalties. The "partners" have been threatened just as harshly as the customers, and in some cases more harshly.
  
  
• The purchase of Great Plains, which puts Microsoft squarely in unequal competition with "partners" specializing in accounting and business management. The revenue growth figures Microsoft has issued for Great Plains can only be met by crushing all competitors.
  
  
• The endless worm / trojan / virus disasters and the huge amount of patching and updating necessary to keep up with them.
  
  
• Decertification of all MCSEs who do not meet stringent Windows 2000 certification requirements (at high cost) by the end of the year.
  
  
• Effective (but disguised) price increases for just about everything.
  
  
• The forced march to .Net and all that implys.
  
  
• The persistent feeling that there's a lot more of this coming.

My frequently repeated statement that "A Microsoft partner is a victim they haven't gotten to yet" is finally being taken seriously.

I have no concerns whatever. My level of "partnership" (was "OEM Partner", now "System Builder") required me to register with Microsoft for permission to buy 5-packs of Windows 95 from Ingram or Tech Data (registration is no longer required, but I still have a "partner number").

I no longer buy multi-packs because I never need that many copys of Windows any more, and getting Windows from my mother board supplier is a couple bucks cheaper anyway.

"Partner" levels that require substantial investment in time, training and products should be very concerned indeed, and I think most are. "Commoditization" is a major problem.

As a columnist in ENT (Enterprise NT) magazine put it about a year ago, "You're making good money on 2000 now, but in a year or two everyone else in your area will be competing with the exact same services - profits will plunge." His recommendation? "Start learning Linux now".

Now, in addition, Microsoft has made it clear - the more substantial a "partner" you are, the more direct competition from Microsoft you will encounter. Big "partners" serving major corporate clients will be hit the hardest.

I have been saying for years that Microsoft would eventually be comming after that money. Their need for rapidly increasing revenue is endless.