Some say he left at least 4 days ago...
E.g. [link|http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/sep2001-daily/21-09-2001/main/main2.htm|this] report from Pakistan. It's a rather childlike explanation, IMO...
I heard a report on the radio a few days ago from someone who was convinced that bin Laden hadn't been in Afghanistan for a while due to the relatively opulent conditions he was usually shown in - it's tough to live surrounded by books, perfumed, in immaculate clothing, etc., if you're hiding in a cave...
A couple of highly unpleasant scenerios:
1. Bin Laden isn't in Afghanistan, but we send in troops looking for him. The western troops suffer severe casualties with little to show for it.
2. Bin Laden is holed up in a city in Afghanistan. We send in troops looking for him after highly selective bombing. No western press accompanies the operation. There are actually few Afghan civilian casualties, but the Taliban and their alles tell the world of thousands of civilians killed due to indiscriminant attacks by the west.
I hope neither come to pass.
If there is an attack on the Taliban and bin Laden, I hope we get it right.
Cheers,
Scott.