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New AI: The problem is simple: people just aren't very smart.
... but we are smarter than elephants. ("
... and we have developed machines in order to increase our intelligence at a faster pace. It probably won't be long before "AI" starts to affect our day to day lives. Anyone care to disagree?
[link|http://www.newsbytes.com/news/01/169659.html|
Artificial Intelligence: Help Wanted - AI Pioneer Minsky]
By Kevin Featherly, Newsbytes
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS,
31 Aug 2001, 6:13 PM CST
The problem is simple: people just aren't very smart. That's why we need smart machines. Just ask Marvin Minsky.
....
Minsky has very specific reasons for moving forward with artificial intelligence, and it's all about human shortcomings. Minsky thinks that humanity's intelligence may have run its evolutionary course. As a species, we may be at or near the end of our tethers in terms of developing a higher order of intelligence. But with digital technology present to push things ahead, Minsky suggests, why stop learning how to learn? Intelligence is intelligence, whether it is processed through software (computers) or wetware (the human brain).

"Humans are the smartest things around, and the question is why they aren't smarter," Minsky said. "They're sort of the only game in town. There are elephants and porpoises, but they don't seem to go past a certain point.

New Re: AI: ....: people just aren't very smart.
Hehehehe...this reminds me of an article I wrote a few years back. It appears
Ol' Marv is recycling his material again. He's really on par with Capt. Cyborg.

**********

Folks, we have a new nominee for Allwein's List of Real Scientific Guys, Marvin Minsky. Pick up last month's Sci. Amer. and see what Ol' Marv has in store for the human race, i.e., the inhuman race. You see, Ol' Marv is troubled, yes, troubled down to the core of his mechanistic being. The human race has outlived its usefulness. Evolution has stopped, by which I think he means he isn't getting any smarter which the article certainly proves. Man has spent a lot of time evolving into you and I and now it just isn't happening anymore, our life expectancy is maxed out, we have reached our crusty limit, in short we should all be taken out and shot...well, not quite shot. Ol' Marv has a plan, in the beginning there is always the plan. All we have to do is follow our new Messiah and ourselves will never die...sort of...our thoughts will never die...no that isn't right...I'd better explain.

Ol' Marv was down in his laboratory one day dreaming about replacing parts of himself with mechanical devices. If you ever had a bad back, you know what I mean. However in Ol' Marv's case, he kept thinking in that special way in which only academics seem capable. He gets to thinking, "if I can replace my hips, my toes, and my heart, what is stopping me from replacing my head". Well golly, Marv, nothing! You can create an electronic brain, then you can transfer yourself in there and be so immortal that mankind can benefit from your truly esteemed thought to help uplift its miserable existance for all time. So Ol' Marv is going to save us. Yes, he's found a way to fool the pants off Mother Nature and give her a good romp in the hay. However, Ol' Marv, didn't stop there. He has more in store for us all.

You see, Ol' Marv gets to thinking we humans have a long list of problems none of which he of course has, just the rest of humanity. There are simply too many of us with lousy jobs sucking up a lot of environment. I think what he means here is there are just too many of everybody else since I didn't see him offering to decrease the world's population by one. So, in his own inimitable way, he tells us he has no patience for people who think people have souls which opens the moral highways to electronic people. In
this view, we are just a bag of bits albeit highly organized bits. All we need to do is build configurations performing the same functions and there we be...literally. It is such a blindingly simple concept that you can just see him smacking himself on the forehead and wondering why he hadn't thought of it earlier. And don't you wish you could do it for him? Every young parent dreams of bouncing a baby robot on their knees, don't they, Marv.

Oky doky, if Ol' Marv is going to create electronic humans (we'll slide over the fact that we already are if you know squat about biology and chemistry...and given Ol' Marv's constipated thought, it is clear he hasn't been squatting enough lately), then he'll be needing to decide which ones to create. Will we simply clone everybody? Nope, remember Ol' Marv thinks there are already too many of us sucking up environment, electronic ones will suck up environment too. So we must choose. Guess which professors, errr...citizens...Ol' Marv is going to choose. Only the best, I presume. After all, you wouldn't want to create a whole lot of electronic criminals like Bill Gates. So we need a list of people who get made and those who will...be allowed to expire...may God rest their souls. To anyone with a memory of the 30's and 40's, this should sound vaguely too damn real.

But we here at the Allwein Works for Electronic People feel that Ol' Marv needs to go further if he is going to get a truly human inhuman. The basic problem he is overlooking is that people (possibly him?) have emotions, phobias, eccentricities, etc. Why, any brief visit to a University campus will provide an enormous cross section of errant human behavior not to mention a nice population of Ol' Marv Wannabees. We couldn't truly create an electronic person unless we included these interesting facets of human behavior...and we know Ol' Marv, bless his soul, would want that. Now all we have to do is figure out how to manufacture emotions, phobias, and eccentricities. Adding a random number generator simply won't do it. So we are constructing the Ol' Marv Module.

The Ol' Marv Module is an emotion, phobia, and eccentricity generator. It sits astride the distributed processing unit of the proto-inhuman we are developing. Its job is to monitor the inhuman and when critical points of decision for the critter are reached, it answers the question "What would Ol' Marv do?". We figure with this module alone we can generate all the inanities of human behavior and with our new Super Power Ossification Relators (SPURs), we can even generate psycho-pathetic behavior such as writing papers on electronic inhumans for tabloid science magazines or buying IBM compatible PCs...and even, in extreme cases, riding the conveyor the belt at the checkout line in the supermarket just to impress the pretty checkout girl.

So when Ol' Marv tells you that you need a new life as an android, you be sure to tell Ol' Marv that you have a nice life already...thank you very much, and wouldn't it be nice if MIT Professors did also!?!
Gerard Allwein
New Poor guy.. I *guess* it's a guy thing, anyway (?)
[S'posed to be under your little synopsis, Gerard - failure of actual-intelligence there; imagine where AI might have put it?]

Gotta *love* his, emotion is just another way of thinking mantra. (Oh wait! mantra.. er, what could a machine do with a mantra ??)

Not to mention the peculiar idea of love, perhaps merely a synergistic metamorphosis of simultaneous integration and disintegration of a neural network .. er in extremis (whaaat.. machine language is Not Latin-conversant? Too?)

{sigh} Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep\ufffd ??? (Thanks Philip K. Dick - a one far advanced from poor Mr. Minsky's dreadful mindset? neuron race-condition?) Dark Star for umm, existential logical encore (?)

Well, I guess it'd be pretty hard to get the attention (let alone any idea of Attention!) of a homo-sap who hasn't read Pygmalion and couldn't even 'get' My Fair Lady, with or without Audrey Hepburn...

So I'd cut to the chase with such as he.
Basic Principle pre-101A ie BA (before academia):

A machine could not ever realize anything!
A machine might pseudoize .. something.. odd.

This combined with another BP, the lower cannot see the higher; pretty much explains why, for example:

The mind cannot 'see itself' (no, Marv, bunky, not even Your er 'mind' tryin to take a gander at some Other homo-sap's er 'mind').

It's easy to see that ol' Marv found a neat way to escape all those basket-weaving umm humanities courses, prolly imagines that 'meta-' is just about certain states of the 2s, 2p electrons, and that 'metaphysics' is just about, oh maybe: n-dimensional phase space and other contrivances of 'mind'?
Surely all superstition, when ya got Real electrons to work with..

I've no doubt he'll be able to fold his 'love of his work' into the first synthesized I Love Me doll which shall {alas} promptly eat itself, with 'relish'. (No, the doll will Not get 'relish' even literally, nor can nuance reach farther than dev/null in its accumulator CMOS. I 'feel' that, anyway...)

And so it goes.

Ahhh.... to have the sinecure of a Tenured Prof at MIT, free to range (forage?) the world with the New Eugenics -- even if, as you hint: severe peristalsis failures have caused him to confuse the effects of massively backed-up fecal material and.. the other idea.. fecund. (Oh well - he prolly skipped English too, poor dear)

(Personally I like the similarities of 'AD' (M$ version of a brain-dead something) and Artificial Dumbth. Hmmm, bet a panel with Gore Vidal and HL Mencken could create a rather nice musical ... from Mr. Minsky's phantom quest? Toss in George Carlin as moderator?)

Y'know.. he could hurt himself w/o a valet -


Ashton Barbarossa
(What it said, over 'my' student-house doorway at the institute was, "Know thyself". 'Course my institute was on the opposite coast.. the water is different there, perhaps. Not so much ivy growing on the cell walls?)
Expand Edited by Missing User 70 Sept. 3, 2001, 04:46:07 PM EDT
New I think of him as a Don Quihote.
Back in 1964 my office/lab was near one of his labs. I was leaving about 10:00 PM one night and there he was slaving away on a DEC PDP-1. In near darkness, he had a rig in front of the CRT display with a chin and forehead rest and a photocell/optics tube near one eye. I asked him what he was up to. He said he was trying to get the machine to figure out where on the screen he was looking. His wife (300 or so lbs. worth) and 3 year old daughter showed up to try to get him to go home. He was still saying "Just few more minutes" when I left. As far as I know, he never made that work. His daughter called him Marvin, which at the time, I thought was peculiar.

A few months later he had group of guys trying to make a DEC PDP-6 with a home-brew robotic arm and vision system play ping pong. I moved on to other pastures so I don't know how far they got, but I'm sure a success would have been publicized.
Alex

Whom the gods destroy, they first make mad. -- Euripides
New I guess we need all the help we can get..
I've been around such folk for lengthy periods, too. Really handy to take certain problems to - with caution. In '64 (that's when we got the first PDP-8s IIRC) it's understandable that one would try to fly before crawling was a done deal.

What I can never quite get though, is how considerably ept techno- folk can sail off into 'AI' with such assurances (as we've been hearing regularly since about that time) before noticing what is known? suspected about: that which they believe they are about to emulate (!) as,

[link|http://faculty.washington.edu/wcalvin/bk8/bk8ch2.htm|How Brains Think]

(Next chapter is on 'consciousness', with suitably humble disclaimers !!)

I am sure he knows much more lore than I ever will, but he seems massively ignorant of umm, what's Different about a homo-sap! vs - anything he could build.


A.
New Some People Aren't Very Smart -- People Using YOUR Software
Let me give another perspective here.

Some people are VERY SMART. Some people are so smart they're scary.

I believe most people "could" be smart, but it's not cool to be smart. Being some dumb guy with a perfectly toned body is much more important in society than being smart.

Smart people do GREAT R&D, but they don't build good mass-market products. Here's why.

Let's take computer networking. First generation networks were very difficult, almost impossible to run. It took incredibly smart people to build and maintain them, and they were VERY EXPENSIVE. You had to decide different things within the card (like how many times to retry a connect UDP packet before giving up on a connection). Each vendor had different standards. The guy who could make a NETBIOS, Token Ring or Ethernet network work in these years was scary-smart. The programming was assembler, with lots of difficult timing loops. The work to get something like X.25 working was simply incredible.

But networks didn't REALLY TAKE OFF until the Ethernet vendors all agreed to build to a very strict common specification. For most people, networks were completely out of reach until they were already built into the motherboard, or you could at least add a card and have it "automagically" work.

Same was true 100 years ago for electric motors. They were only for "smart" people who understood electricity because there were no standards, and getting your wires crossed could mean death. There were no AC or DC standards for wiring the factory, much less the home. Following the example of the "steam engine", the first builders of electric motors were trying to build them HUGE, so they could run the main drive belt of a 4-5 story factory, with a belt to each floor and then belts to each machine. Finally, some guy figured out that you could put a small motor on each machine and run wires everywhere. But that was dangerous, until standard voltages/amperages and even outlet plugs were invented.

The revolution in world manufacturing occurred as inventors finally made electricity simple, and now 98% of the people in the modern world don't have a clue as to how electricity works. They just put the plug in the socket and it works.

You want to be a billionaire? Take something that is really difficult today to do/use/create and make it simple. People want simple, people need simple. Examples I have thought of:

1. How about a car dealership where you pay about $100 over a normal car payment ($400-500 a month?) and the dealership takes care of you forever. When you take your car in for service, they have a rental waiting. When things (tires, brakes, etc.) wear out, they just take care of it. If the car breaks down, they send a tow and a cab. They just take care of you. How many people would kill for that? Just make transportation simple.

2. In one prior organization I worked for, there were a few financial "geniuses" who built the spreadsheet models. These guys were simply brilliant in their smarts in building these models. Then, they would give them to managers who would put the numbers in the right places, and then answers would come out. The managers could play with the numbers and see what would happen if they spent more or less on people/hardware/software, etc. The smarter managers would question the "assumptions" that the models were based on, but most just accepted the model as fact. Simple.

3. For years, the products one org I worked for were difficult to use and configure. We and our customers spent tons of money on programmers, consultants, installers, etc. Then TCP/IP game along, and we rewrote our product where all the customer needed to install our product was one 10-12 character field (kind of like an IP address). That's it. The product did the rest. Now, the company is phasing out all the "old" stuff because the new product is soooo SIMPLE!

It's not that complexity isn't good or valuable. It's just that 50% of the people in the world can't even handle the complexity of rows and columsn. The next 25% can handle 2D data, but are lost on 3D data. Then the real geniuses manage data in their heads in 5 dimensions. We should have people in the world who truly understand and value complexity, but then we need to hide a bunch of that complexity (like we do in Ethernet and TCP/IP), so that only a few thousand people in the world understand how it works.

However, I do become afraid from time to time that we'll end up like the Star Trek episode where the women lived underground and the men above ground. The women had this "magical" cap that simulated the brain of the leader of the women to have them instantly "learn" how to fix things, solve crises, etc. The cap stimulated the short term memory to the point where someone could do brain surgery for a matter of hours. Was it "Spock's Brain? or Pain and Delight?" I do think they stole Spock's brain in the episode because they needed a "controller". What happens when you the "controller" dies? What happens when there's no one left who knows how TCP/IP works anymore? Will we even be able to read the 20th Century English RFP defining the specification?

Bottom line, for mass market success, you need simple. But you still need the super geniuses who understand how things really work. You just want someone else to pay their salaries.

Glen Austin

New Also -- a lot of issues can't be decided by intelligence
like deciding what is worth pursuing with one's intelligence, time, and energy.

Obviously, the whole area of politics, relationships, and living in society.

Tony
New Who wants to b smart?You can't be President if you're smart.
New Presidential smarts overrated
What you need is presidential leadership.

Like it or not, Ronald Reagan was a leader. When he thought something was right, he did it. And it often worked. Bombing the snot out of Libya may not have killed its leader, but it sure made them, very quiet in subsequent years.

Unfortunately, Bush has shown as much leadership as a warm marshmellow. I sometimes listen to Rush Limburger and today he fawned and damned near ejaculated over all the latest Bush doings. Dammit, no. Bush was the best of a bad choice, IMO, but geeze!
French Zombies are zapping me with lasers!
     AI: The problem is simple: people just aren't very smart. - (brettj) - (8)
         Re: AI: ....: people just aren't very smart. - (gtall)
         Poor guy.. I *guess* it's a guy thing, anyway (?) - (Ashton) - (2)
             I think of him as a Don Quihote. - (a6l6e6x) - (1)
                 I guess we need all the help we can get.. - (Ashton)
         Some People Aren't Very Smart -- People Using YOUR Software - (gdaustin) - (3)
             Also -- a lot of issues can't be decided by intelligence - (tonytib)
             Who wants to b smart?You can't be President if you're smart. -NT - (mmoffitt) - (1)
                 Presidential smarts overrated - (wharris2)

Pain is merely nature's way of hurting you.
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